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首页> 外文期刊>Atlantic economic journal >Determinants of Housing Prices and Bubble Detection: Evidence from Seven Advanced Economies
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Determinants of Housing Prices and Bubble Detection: Evidence from Seven Advanced Economies

机译：住房价格和泡沫检测的决定因素：来自七个先进经济体的证据

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This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between residential property prices and the business cycle for seven advanced Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies over the period 2002-2015 using quarterly data. To this end, panel data and time series methodologies are adopted as a means of providing a contextual framework on the extant relationship. The panel methodological framework explores the interaction between economic fundamentals and financial variables while the use of time series methodologies developed by Phillips et al. (2011 and 2015) provide novel evidence on the detection of property price bubbles that have been manifested in each individual country of the sample. In particular, the short-run dynamic panel framework provides a robust exploratory platform thus, shedding light on the determinants of property prices (i.e. real gross domestic product, bank credit growth, long-term bond yields and real effective exchange rate) whilst the bubble detection methodologies provide evidence of the impact of credit-driven economies on the propagation of housing booms which can serve as warning signals of the potential formation of housing bubbles.
机译：本文使用季度数据，提供了七个经济合作与发展组织2002-2015年期间住宅房地产价格与商业周期之间关系的经验证据。为此，采用面板数据和时间序列方法作为提供关于现存关系的上下文框架的手段。小组方法框架探索了经济基本面和金融变量之间的相互作用，同时使用了由菲利普斯等人开发的时间序列方法。 （2011年和2015年）提供了关于发现样本中每个国家所表现出的房地产价格泡沫的新颖证据。尤其是，短期动态面板框架提供了一个强大的探索平台，从而揭示了房地产价格的决定因素（即实际国内生产总值，银行信贷增长，长期债券收益率和实际有效汇率），而泡沫时期检测方法论提供了信贷驱动型经济对房地产繁荣发展的影响的证据，可以作为房地产泡沫潜在形成的预警信号。

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