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Perspectives on Whether or Not to Vote and on the Complexity of Democratic Elections

机译：关于是否投票以及民主选举的复杂性的观点

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摘要

Within the context of current political and economic realities, several perspectives on voting experiences, voter behavior and turnout, and the complexity of the election process are provided in this special section of the Atlantic Economic Journal. The first study by Hansen, Shughart, and Yonk examines the controversial 2015 Greek referendum. In particular, on July 5,2015, Greek citizens voted on whether their country should accept the terms of austerity offered by the European Union (EU) for a bailout from the country's financial crisis. With an overall turnout rate of 62.5%, 61.3% of those voting voted "no." While a majority of voters in every district opposed the bailout's terms, the margin against the proposed austerity measures ranged from 51.2% in Lakonia to 73.8% in Chania. This study explores whether political parties influenced voters' decisions to accept or reject the EU's budgetary reforms. The study examines whether party platforms are merely "cheap talk" or are salient in determining electoral outcomes. Formal hypothesis testing is undertaken at the voting district level. The key independent variable is party influence, which is measured by party vote shares in the nationwide election held in January 2015. The dependent variable is the percentage that voted "no" to austerity on July 5,2015 in each of Greece's 56 electoral districts. The model controls for average age and the unemployment rate across regions, as well as the fraction of first-time voters in each electoral district. Empirical estimation implies that a pro-austerity party (New Democracy) was a significant factor impacting the results of the referendum. This research finding bolsters the claim that political parties can shape electoral outcomes on questions decided via direct democracy.
机译：在当前政治和经济现实的背景下，《大西洋经济日报》的这一特殊部分提供了有关投票经历，选民行为和投票率以及选举过程的复杂性的几种观点。汉森（Hansen），舒加特（Shughart）和扬克（Yonk）进行的第一项研究考察了备受争议的2015年希腊公投。尤其是在2015年7月5日，希腊公民对自己的国家是否应接受欧盟（EU）提出的紧缩条款进行了投票，以从该国的金融危机中获得救助。总投票率为62.5％，有61.3％的投票赞成。尽管每个地区的大多数选民都反对救助计划的条款，但相对于拟议的紧缩措施的幅度，拉科尼亚州的这一比例为51.2％，干尼亚州的这一比例为73.8％。这项研究探讨了政党是否影响了选民接受或拒绝欧盟预算改革的决定。该研究检查了政党平台仅仅是“便宜的谈话”还是在确定选举结果方面很重要。正式的假设检验在投票区一级进行。关键自变量是政党影响力，它是通过2015年1月举行的全国选举中的政党投票份额来衡量的。因变量是2015年7月5日在希腊的56个选举区中对紧缩政策投反对票的百分比。该模型控制着各个地区的平均年龄和失业率，以及每个选举区中首次选民的比例。根据经验估计，赞成紧缩政党（新民主主义）是影响公投结果的重要因素。这项研究发现支持了政党可以在通过直接民主决定的问题上影响选举结果的主张。

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  • 来源
    《Atlantic economic journal》 |2017年第1期|1-3|共3页
  • 作者

    Richard J. Cebula;

  • 作者单位

    Davis College of Business, Jacksonville University, Jacksonville, FL 32211, USA;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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