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Exchange Rate, Capital Flow and Output: Developed versus Developing Economies

机译:汇率,资本流量和产出:发达经济体与发展中经济体

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摘要

This paper aims to study the impact of exchange rate and capital flows on output in one unifying model. To explore this issue, we apply a vector auto-regression (VAR) model with Cholesky decomposition to a group of developed economies (Canada, Switzerland, Australia, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain) and developing economies (Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Brazil, and Chile). The sample period varies for each country with the longest for Switzerland (1970:1-2010:3) and the shortest for Chile (1996:1-2010:3). The findings suggest first that contractionary devaluation is more likely to happen in developing countries while expansionary devaluation is more prevalent in developed countries. Second, the current account tends to improve in some of the countries facing currency depreciation. However, whether output increases after a real devaluation or not has little to do with whether the current account improves or not. Third, in response to capital inflows, output in developed countries are largely unaffected, while output in developing countries generally increases.
机译:本文旨在以一种统一的模型研究汇率和资本流动对产出的影响。为探讨此问题,我们将带有Cholesky分解的向量自回归(VAR)模型应用于一组发达经济体(加拿大,瑞士,澳大利亚,意大利,荷兰和西班牙)和发展中经济体(墨西哥,印度尼西亚,韩国,马来西亚,菲律宾,巴西和智利)。每个国家的采样期各不相同,瑞士最长(1970:1-2010:3),而智利最短(1996:1-2010:3)。研究结果首先表明,收缩贬值在发展中国家更可能发生,而扩张性贬值在发达国家更为普遍。其次,在一些面临货币贬值的国家,经常账户趋于改善。但是,实际贬值后产出是否增加与经常账户是否改善没有关系。第三,为应对资本流入,发达国家的产出在很大程度上未受影响,而发展中国家的产出总体上有所增加。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Atlantic economic journal》 |2015年第2期|195-207|共13页
  • 作者

    Gil Kim; Lian An; Yoonbai Kim;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Economics, California State University, Fresno, 5245 North Backer Ave, Fresno, CA 93740, USA;

    Department of Economics and Geography, Coggin College of Business, University of North Florida, 1 UNF Drive, Jacksonville, FL 32224, USA;

    Department of Economics, University of Kentucky, 335K Gatton College of Business and Economics, Lexington, KY 40506-0034, USA;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Devaluation; Contractionary effects; VAR model;

    机译:贬值;收缩作用;VAR模型;

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