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Difficult Convergence among the Five Main European Union Countries and the Crisis of the Euro Area

机译:欧盟五个主要国家之间的艰难融合和欧元区危机

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This paper focuses on the European Union (EU) and European Monetary Union (EMU) as club-governments after an analysis of the characteristics of the union of governments as clubs. Convergence among member countries regarding the parameters relevant for club homogeneity and stability is paramount. We develop empirical research on the convergence path in a model with the five main EU countries, with 15 parameters drawn from neoclassical growth theory and from EU-EMU rules. We examine convergence and stability in the EU club for France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom by measuring their parametric spreads from 2003 (first year of normal circulation of the euro) to 2011. Convergence with growth developed before the great financial fluctuation, then divergence set in. Convergence then reappeared with partial stagnation. Gross domestic product (GDP) was the dominant parameter, while GDP per capita was the least important. The main focus of the paper is on measurement. The results signal the need for changes in institutions and policy tools consistent with the market economy models of the two clubs. Further integration will face the same issues.
机译:在分析了政府作为俱乐部的联盟特征之后,本文重点关注作为俱乐部政府的欧洲联盟(EU)和欧洲货币联盟(EMU)。成员国之间关于俱乐部同质性和稳定性相关参数的趋同是至关重要的。我们在具有五个主要欧盟国家的模型中进行收敛路径的实证研究,并从新古典增长理论和EU-EMU规则中提取了15个参数。我们通过测量从2003年(欧元正常流通的第一年)到2011年的参数利差,来研究法国,德国,意大利,西班牙和英国的欧盟俱乐部的趋同性和稳定性。 ,然后出现分歧。然后出现收敛,但出现局部停滞。国内生产总值(GDP)是主要参数,而人均GDP则是最不重要的参数。本文的主要重点是测量。结果表明,有必要改变与两个俱乐部的市场经济模型相一致的机构和政策工具。进一步的整合将面临同样的问题。

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