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Effects of Currency Devaluations on the Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Role of Foreign Currency-Denominated Debt

机译:货币贬值对发展中国家经济增长的影响:外币计价债务的作用

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Assuming that a developing country has to denominate its debts in the currencies of the principal creditor countries, how is the country's economic performance affected when currency devaluation occurs? The aim of this paper is to prove that devaluation can be contractionary and that its occurrence can be the result of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Assuming credit constraints on firms' borrowing capacity and nominal price rigidities, a sharp change in the value of the domestic currency leads to an increase in the real costs of foreign currency-denominated debt. Hence, firms' profits as well as their borrowing capacity decrease, provoking a drop in future investment and output. Moreover, expectations about future output can alone trigger a currency devaluation, confirming the initial expectations in a self-fulfilling way. Finally, it is discussed in an empirical analysis the impact of devaluation on the economic growth in a sample of five countries.
机译:假设发展中国家必须以主要债权国的货币计价债务,那么当货币贬值时,该国的经济表现如何受到影响?本文的目的是证明贬值可能是收缩的,并且贬值的发生可能是自我实现的预言的结果。假设信贷对企业的借贷能力和名义价格刚性构成约束,那么本币值的急剧变化会导致外币债务的实际成本增加。因此,企业的利润及其借贷能力下降,导致未来的投资和产出下降。此外,对未来产出的期望仅会引发货币贬值,从而以自我实现的方式确认了最初的期望。最后,在五个国家的样本中,通过经验分析讨论了贬值对经济增长的影响。

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