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Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

机译：光化学模型评估艾伯塔省油砂地区的地面臭氧对周围空气质量和植被健康的影响：使用当前和未来的排放情景

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One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOx and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil sands) on ground-level ozone levels as an air quality management tool in the AOSR. It allows an evaluation of the relationships between the pollutants emitted to the atmosphere and potential ground level ozone concentrations throughout the AOSR thereby extending the spatial coverage of the results beyond the monitoring network and also allowing an assessment of the potential impacts of possible future emission cases. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：与油砂开发相关的潜在环境问题之一是由NOx引起的臭氧形成增加以及沥青提取，加工和升级产生的挥发性有机化合物排放。为了在艾伯塔省东北部的阿萨巴斯卡油砂地区（AOSR）处理此问题，一个由多方利益相关者组成的区域性组织，累积环境管理协会（CEMA）开发了一个臭氧管理框架，其中包括基于模型的评估组件。在本文中，我们描述了社区多尺度空气质量（CMAQ）模型如何用于评估AOSR中三种不同臭氧前体案例的潜在地面臭氧形成及其对环境空气质量和植被健康的影响。应用了统计分析方法，CMAQ性能结果在所有站点均达到了美国EPA模式的性能目标。在基准情景和两个未来年份情景中，建模的第四最高每日最大8小时平均臭氧浓度未超过加拿大范围的65 ppb的标准或新的加拿大环境空气质量标准（2015年的63 ppb和2020年的62 ppb）。在所有这三种情况下，研究中模拟的最大1小时臭氧浓度均远低于艾伯塔省环境空气质量目标82 ppb。还评估了几种臭氧植被暴露指标，以调查地面臭氧对植被的潜在影响。在AOSR中的任何地方，慢性3个月SUM60暴露指标均处于CEMA基准范围内（0-2000 ppb-hr）。 CMAQ预测的AOT40臭氧暴露量度在任何情况下均未超过联合国欧洲经济委员会（UN / ECE）的关注阈值3,000 ppb-hr，但仅低于高端未来排放情景下的阈值。在所有三种排放情景中，CMAQ预测的W126臭氧暴露指标均处于4000 ppb-hr的CEMA基准阈值之内。这项研究概述了使用光化学模型模拟一个行业（油砂）对地面臭氧水平的影响，以此作为AOSR中的空气质量管理工具。它可以评估排放到大气中的污染物与整个AOSR中潜在的地面臭氧浓度之间的关系，从而将结果的空间覆盖范围扩展到监测网络之外，还可以评估未来可能发生的排放案例的潜在影响。 （C）2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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