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Modelling wet deposition in simulations of volcanic ash dispersion from hypothetical eruptions of Merapi, Indonesia

机译:在模拟印度尼西亚默拉比火山喷发的火山灰弥散中模拟湿沉降

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摘要

The statistical impact of including the process of wet deposition in dispersion model predictions of the movement of volcanic ash is assessed. Based on hypothetical eruptions of Merapi, Indonesia, sets of dispersion model simulations were generated, each containing four simulations per day over a period of three years, to provide results based on a wide range of atmospheric conditions. While on average dry sedimentation removes approximately 10% of the volcanic ash from the atmosphere during the first 24 h, wet deposition removes an additional 30% during seasons with highest rainfall (December and January) but only an additional 1% during August and September. The majority of the wet removal is due to in cloud rather than below-cloud collection of volcanic ash particles. The largest uncertainties in the amount of volcanic ash removed by the process of wet deposition result from the choice of user-defined parameters used to compute the scavenging coefficient, and from the definition of the cloud top height. Errors in the precipitation field provided by the numerical weather prediction model utilised here have relatively less impact. Crown Copyright (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
机译:评估了在火山灰运动的弥散模型预测中包括湿沉降过程的统计影响。根据印度尼西亚默拉比的假想喷发,生成了一组弥散模型模拟,每组包含三年内每天进行四次模拟,以提供基于各种大气条件的结果。平均而言,在头24小时内,干沉降会从大气中去除大约10%的火山灰,而在降雨量最高的季节(十二月和一月),湿沉降会去除另外的30%,而八月和九月则仅去除1%。大部分的湿气去除是由于云层中的火山灰颗粒而不是云层以下的聚集。通过湿法沉积过程去除的火山灰量最大的不确定性来自选择用于计算扫气系数的用户定义参数以及云顶高度的定义。由此处使用的数值天气预报模型提供的降水场中的误差影响相对较小。官方版权(C)2016,由Elsevier Ltd.发行。这是CC BY-NC-ND许可下的开放访问文章。

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