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Simulating present-day and future air quality as climate changes: Model evaluation

机译：模拟当今和未来随着气候变化的空气质量：模型评估

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The global-regional climate-air pollution modeling system (GRE-CAPS) has been developed, coupling an existing general circulation model/chemical-transport model (GCM/CTM), a regional meteorological model, and a regional chemical transport model. This system is intended to enable studies of the effects of changes in climate, intercontinental transport, and emissions on regional and urban air quality. The GRE-CAPS system consists of the GISS II' GCM/CTM, the MM5 regional meteorological model, and the PMCAMx regional CTM. The modeling system is evaluated for the present day, with comparisons between model-predicted, measured ozone, and speciated PM_(2.5) concentrations. The ability of the model to predict present-day concentrations of ozone and PM_(2.5) is compared to that of PMCAMx when used for retrospective modeling. Comparisons between model-predicted temperatures and precipitation are also made. The model was used to simulate five present-day Januaries and six present-day Julys. The biases and errors in GRE-CAPS-predicted ozone concentrations were similar to those of PMCAMx when used for standard retrospective modeling. The fractional biases in mean daily peak ozone concentration and mean daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentration are both < 10%. The model-predicted distribution of peak hourly and daily maximum 8-h average values agreed rather well with the measured distribution. There is less agreement between the model and measurements in the number of hours with ozone mixing ratios > 70 or 80 ppb, though this is also the case with standard PMCAMx modeling. The predictions of PM_(2.5) concentrations by GRE-CAPS were also of similar quality to those of PMCAMx driven by historical meteorology. The fractional biases in the predictions of total PM_(2.5), sulfate, ammonium, and nitrate were all < 25% in both January and July. The model agrees well with organic PM_(2.5) measurements from the IMPROVE network, though there is less agreement with measurements from the STN network. The GRE-CAPS system is shown to reproduce ozone and PM_(2.5) concentrations for the present day rather well, with model performance similar to that of PMCAMx for standard retrospective episode modeling with historical meteorology. GRE-CAPS will be used in future studies to examine the effects of changes in climate, global emissions, and intercontinental transport on regional air quality.
机译：已经开发了全球区域气候空气污染建模系统（GRE-CAPS），该系统结合了现有的一般环流模型/化学物运输模型（GCM / CTM），区域气象模型和区域化学物运输模型。该系统旨在研究气候变化，洲际交通和排放对区域和城市空气质量的影响。 GRE-CAPS系统由GISS II的GCM / CTM，MM5区域气象模型和PMCAMx区域CTM组成。今天对建模系统进行了评估，并比较了模型预测的，测得的臭氧和特定的PM_（2.5）浓度。当将其用于回顾性建模时，该模型预测当今臭氧和PM_（2.5）浓度的能力与PMCAMx的能力进行了比较。还对模型预测的温度和降水量进行了比较。该模型用于模拟五个当前的一月和六个当前的七月。当用于标准追溯模型时，GRE-CAPS预测的臭氧浓度中的偏差和误差与PMCAMx相似。日平均峰值臭氧浓度和日平均最大8小时平均臭氧浓度的分数偏差均<10％。模型预测的每小时和每天最大8小时平均值峰值的分布与测得的分布非常吻合。在臭氧混合比大于70或80 ppb的小时数中，模型与测量之间的一致性较小，尽管标准PMCAMx建模也是如此。 GRE-CAPS对PM_（2.5）浓度的预测质量也与历史气象学驱动的PMCAMx相似。一月和七月的总PM_（2.5），硫酸盐，铵和硝酸盐的预测中的分数偏差均小于25％。该模型与IMPROVE网络的有机PM_（2.5）测量结果非常吻合，尽管与STN网络的测量结果吻合较少。显示GRE-CAPS系统可以很好地再现当今的臭氧​​和PM_（2.5）浓度，其模型性能与具有历史气象学的标准回顾性事件建模的PMCAMx相似。 GRE-CAPS将在未来的研究中使用，以检查气候变化，全球排放以及洲际运输对区域空气质量的影响。

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