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首页> 外文期刊>Atmospheric research >Potential of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting approach for the 28 September 2012 extreme flash flood in Murcia, Spain
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Potential of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting approach for the 28 September 2012 extreme flash flood in Murcia, Spain

机译：2012年9月28日西班牙穆尔西亚极端山洪暴发的概率水文气象预报方法的潜力

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An improved understanding, modeling and forecasting of hydrometeorological extremes over the flood-prone Western Mediterranean region is one of the milestones of the international HyMeX program. A set of severe hydrometeorological episodes affected various basins across south and eastern Mediterranean Spain from 27 to 29 September 2012. Flooding was particularly catastrophic in Andalusia and Murcia, where 10 fatalities occurred and material losses were estimated at 120 ME. The predictability bounds set by the type and scales of the processes involved in such high-impact episodes require the explicit representation of uncertainty in the hydrometeorological forecasting chain. A short-range ensemble prediction system (EPS) provides the optimal framework to generate risk-based forecasts supporting valuable early warning procedures and mitigation measures. We explore the potential of this probabilistic forecasting approach on the 28 September 2012 flash flood in the Guadalentin river basin, a medium-sized catchment located in Murcia, southeastern Spain. After a rigorous calibration with rain-gauge data, the hydrological response of the basin to this flooding is accurately simulated by the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrological Modeling System runoff model. Then, we explore the uncertainty transference from a collection of mesoscale meteorological deterministic and probabilistic 48 h predictions provided by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The meteorological simulations are nested within the global EPS of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, therefore inheriting the spread of the global system and providing probabilistic high-resolution precipitation structures to the hydrological model. By assuming the calibrated model as a good representation of a perfect hydrological model for this event, it becomes an advanced and user-oriented verification tool for quantitative precipitation forecasts. Results highlight the benefits of accounting for uncertainties in the precipitation forecasts and the value of the proposed set-up for the short-range prediction of quantitative discharge forecasts. The warn-on-forecast approach is shown to be possible within a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting chain for basins as small and fast-responsive as the Guadalentin basin, proving to be suitable for civil protection warning procedures. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：易发洪水的西地中海地区对水文气象极端事件的了解，建模和预报得到了改进，这是国际HyMeX计划的里程碑之一。 2012年9月27日至29日，一系列严重的水文气象事件影响了西班牙南部和东部地中海沿岸的各个盆地。安达卢西亚和穆尔西亚的洪灾尤其是灾难性的，其中10人丧生，估计物质损失为120 ME。由此类高影响事件涉及的过程的类型和规模设定的可预测性界限要求在水文气象预测链中明确表示不确定性。短程总体预测系统（EPS）提供了最佳的框架，可以生成基于风险的预测，从而支持有价值的预警程序和缓解措施。我们在2012年9月28日瓜达伦丁河流域（西班牙东南部穆尔西亚的一个中型流域）上的这种洪水概率预报方法中探索这种概率预测方法的潜力。经过雨量计数据的严格校准后，水文工程中心的水文建模系统径流模型可以准确地模拟流域对该洪水的水文响应。然后，我们从气象研究与预报（WRF）模型提供的中尺度气象确定性和概率48小时预报集合中探索不确定性转移。气象模拟嵌套在欧洲中距离天气预报中心的全球EPS中，因此继承了全球系统的分布，并为水文模型提供了概率较高的高分辨率降水结构。通过将校准模型假定为该事件的理想水文模型的良好代表，它成为用于定量降水预报的先进且面向用户的验证工具。结果突出了在降水量预报中考虑不确定性的好处，以及为短期排放量定量预报所建议的方案的价值。事实证明，预警概率方法在概率水文气象预报链中是可行的，适用于像瓜达伦丁盆地那样小且反应迅速的盆地，事实证明它适用于民防预警程序。 （C）2015 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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