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Usefulness of satellite water vapour imagery in forecasting strong convection: A flash-flood case study

机译：卫星水汽图像在强对流预报中的实用性：一次洪水案例研究

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Using a case study of a severe convective event as an example, a framework for interpreting 6.2 μm channel satellite imagery that enables to indicate upper-level conditioning of the convective environment is presented and discussed. In order to illustrate the approach, all convective cells during the summer of 2007 that produced precipitations over Bulgaria are considered. They are classified regarding the observed moisture pattern in mid-upper levels as well as the low-level conditions of air humidity and convergence of the flow. Water vapour (WV) images are used to study the evolution of the upper-level moist and dry structures. The proposed interpretation is that the role of the upper-level dry boundaries identified in the WV imagery as favoured areas for the initiation of deep moist convection cannot be understood (and hence cannot be forecasted accurately) by considering them in isolation from the dynamic rate at which they are maintained.rnThe paper examines the 23 June 2006 flash flood in Sofia city as a case, in which the operational forecast of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Bulgaria based on the mesoscale NWP model ALADIN underestimated the severity of the convective process. A comparison between the satellite water vapour imagery and the corresponding geopotential field of the dynamical tropopause, expressed in terms of potential vorticity (PV), shows an error in the performance of the ARPEGE operational numerical model. There is an obvious mismatch between the PV anomaly structure and the dry zone of the imagery. The forecast field shows underestimation of the tropopause height gradient and displacement of the PV anomaly to the southwest of the real position seen in the satellite image. It is concluded that the observed poor forecast is a result of the ARPEGE failure to treat correctly the interaction between the PV anomaly and the low-level warm anomaly.
机译：以严重对流事件为例，提出并讨论了用于解释6.2μm频道卫星图像的框架，该框架能够指示对流环境的高层条件。为了说明这种方法，考虑了2007年夏季在保加利亚上空产生降水的所有对流单元。根据所观察到的中上水平的湿度模式以及低水平的空气湿度和流量收敛情况对它们进行分类。水蒸气（WV）图像用于研究高层潮湿和干燥结构的演变。拟议的解释是，将WV影像中确定的高层干边界作为引发深湿对流的有利区域的作用无法通过将其与动态速率相隔离的考虑加以理解（因此无法准确预测）。 rn本文以2006年6月23日索非亚市的山洪暴发为例，在该案例中，基于中尺度NWP模型ALADIN的保加利亚国家气象水文研究所的运行预测低估了对流过程的严重性。卫星水蒸气图像与动态对流层顶的相应地势场之间的比较（以势涡度（PV）表示）表明ARPEGE运算数值模型的性能存在误差。 PV异常结构与影像的干燥区之间存在明显的不匹配。预报字段显示了对流层顶高度梯度的低估和PV异常向卫星图像中实际位置西南方向的位移。结论是，观察到的不良预报是ARPEGE无法正确处理PV异常与低层暖异常之间相互作用的结果。

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