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首页> 外文期刊>Atmospheric research >Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model: Assessment of performance in high resolution simulations in complex terrain in the Canary Islands
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Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model: Assessment of performance in high resolution simulations in complex terrain in the Canary Islands

机译：WRF模型的敏感性分析：在加那利群岛复杂地形中高分辨率模拟性能的评估

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摘要

Canary Islands and other regions have been greatly damaged by weather events during the last decades. For this reason, the main duty of National Meteorological Services is to minimize socio-economic losses by forecasting adverse weather episodes with enough time in advance. To achieve this goal, the use of numerical weather prediction models is highly relevant. And, even more crucial, is to comprehend the model accuracy.In this paper, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over the Canary Islands has been carried out. The complex terrain of the archipelago makes the islands a test bench of high interest. Four scores were used to assess the accuracy of the model configurations: Bias, mean absolute error (MAE), root of the Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and the correlation coefficient (r). Initially, twenty-five WRF model configurations were considered. However, a preliminary test discarded inadequate configurations, and reduced the number to six. The variables of interest were air temperature at 2 m (T2m), maximum 1-h wind gust at 10 m and 3-h rainfall accumulation. The results indicated a systematic wind speed underestimation. This underestimation is related to the influence of the location and the complex orography. The most accurate wind forecasts were obtained using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic Planetary Boudary Layer (PBL) scheme with the WSM6 microphysics (MP) scheme. Another major conclusion is that, for precipitation, the PBL scheme has a greater impact than the MP scheme. Finally, the results show that the Boulac - Thompson combination is the most accurate regarding T2m forecast.
机译：在过去的几十年中，加那利群岛和其他地区的天气事件受到了极大的破坏。出于这个原因，国家气象服务的主要责任是通过预测预先预测足够的时间的恶劣天气发作来减少社会经济损失。为实现这一目标，使用数值天气预报模型的使用是高度相关的。而且，更重要的是要理解模型准确性。本文已经进行了对加那利群岛的天气研究和预测（WRF）模型的详尽敏感性分析。群岛的复杂地形使岛屿成为高兴趣的测试台。使用四个分数来评估模型配置的准确性：偏差，平均绝对误差（MAE），平均方形误差（RMSE）的根，以及相关系数（R）。最初，考虑了二十五个WRF模型配置。然而，初步测试丢弃了不充分的配置，并将数量减少到六个。感兴趣的变量为2米（T2M）的空气温度，最大1小时风阵列为10米和3-H降雨量。结果表明系统的风速低估。这种低估与位置和复杂的地形的影响有关。使用Mellor-yamada-Janjic行星行星壳体（PBL）方案获得最精确的风预测，用WSM6微物质（MP）方案。另一个主要结论是，对于沉淀，PBL方案具有比MP方案更大的冲击。最后，结果表明，Boulac - 汤普森组合对T2M预测最准确。

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