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Monte Carlo simulation for design flood estimation: a review of Australian practice

机译：设计洪水估算的蒙特卡洛模拟：澳大利亚实践回顾

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摘要

Rainfall-based design flood estimation methods in Australia traditionally follow the design event approach. However, the basic assumption of a probability neutral transformation in the design event approach has been widely criticised. For this reason, joint probability approaches (like Monte Carlo simulation) were proposed in the 1970s to account for the probabilistic nature of key inputs in rainfall-runoff modelling. However, these techniques were not seriously tested until the 1990s, when a simple Monte Carlo simulation technique was developed that used existing design data and models, for Australian hydrologic practice. This paper summarises the evolution of Monte Carlo simulation techniques for design flood estimation with a particular emphasis on Australian practice. It has been found that significant advancements have been made in the development and testing of Monte Carlo simulation in Australia; but, there is still a lack of commercial software hindering the routine application of holistic Monte Carlo simulation approaches.
机译：传统上，澳大利亚基于降雨的设计洪水估算方法遵循设计事件方法。但是，在设计事件方法中概率中性变换的基本假设已被广泛批评。因此，在1970年代提出了联合概率方法（如蒙特卡洛模拟），以说明降雨径流建模中关键输入的概率性质。但是，直到1990年代，才对这些技术进行了严格的测试，当时开发了一种简单的蒙特卡洛模拟技术，该技术使用现有的设计数据和模型来进行澳大利亚水文实践。本文总结了用于设计洪水估算的蒙特卡罗模拟技术的发展，特别强调了澳大利亚的实践。已经发现，在澳大利亚的蒙特卡罗模拟的开发和测试中已经取得了重大进展。但是，仍然缺乏商业软件，阻碍了整体蒙特卡罗模拟方法的常规应用。

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