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首页> 外文期刊>Australian journal of water resources >Drought assessment and forecasting: A case study on the Yarra River catchment in Victoria, Australia
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Drought assessment and forecasting: A case study on the Yarra River catchment in Victoria, Australia

机译：干旱评估和预报：以澳大利亚维多利亚州亚拉河流域为例

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摘要

Drought is a natural phenomenon, and has widespread and significant impacts on the world's economy, environment, industries and the wider community. Early detection of droughts helps to implement drought mitigation strategies and measures before they occur. Therefore, drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of water resources systems, especially during dry climatic periods. However, drought assessment and forecasting are not always easy tasks. In this paper, an approach that was developed and tested for drought assessment and forecasting is presented together with a case study on the Yarra River catchment in Victoria (Australia). An evaluation of existing drought indices was first conducted in this study, which led to the development of a new non-linear aggregated drought index (NADI). The NADI defines a broad perspective of dryness within the catchment rather than the traditional individual meteorological, hydrological and agricultural subcategories. Thereafter, a novel drought forecasting modelling approach was developed using the NADI time series. The results show that the developed forecasting models are capable of forecasting drought conditions well up to 6 months ahead forecasts which were statistically significant at 1% level. The outcomes of this study will be useful for water resources managers to assess droughts effectively and forecast future drought conditions, which will allow them to plan ahead the future water management activities especially during drought periods.
机译：干旱是一种自然现象，对世界的经济，环境，工业和更广泛的社区具有广泛而重大的影响。早期发现干旱有助于在干旱发生之前实施缓解干旱的策略和措施。因此，干旱预报在水资源系统的规划和管理中起着重要作用，尤其是在干旱气候时期。但是，干旱评估和预报并不总是一件容易的事。本文介绍了一种经过开发和测试的干旱评估和预报方法，并以维多利亚州（澳大利亚）亚拉河流域为例进行了研究。这项研究首先对现有的干旱指数进行了评估，从而导致了新的非线性综合干旱指数（NADI）的发展。 NADI定义了流域内干燥的广阔前景，而不是传统的个人气象，水文和农业子类别。此后，使用NADI时间序列开发了一种新颖的干旱预报建模方法。结果表明，开发的预测模型能够预测干旱情况，比预测提前6个月，这在1％的水平上具有统计学意义。这项研究的结果将有助于水资源管理者有效地评估干旱并预测未来的干旱状况，这将使他们能够提前计划未来的水资源管理活动，尤其是在干旱时期。

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