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首页> 外文期刊>Australian journal of water resources >Sensitivity analysis of yield estimate of urban water supply systems
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Sensitivity analysis of yield estimate of urban water supply systems

机译：城市供水系统产量估算的敏感性分析

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Sensitivity analysis (SA) theory and techniques were used in this study to estimate the sensitivity of input variables on the yield estimate of an urban water supply system. The SA techniques considered were Morris method and Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST), including the related extended FAST. A case study on a simple urban water supply system was conducted to assess the applicability and to study the limitations of these techniques and the SA framework adopted. Findings showed that the streamflow dominated all experiments, with the supply reliability threshold, the upper restriction rule curve and the consecutive months in restrictions threshold of subsequent importance. In a screening pass, importance ranking of the 26 considered variables from the Morris method were verified with FAST and extended FAST. Once minor errors were overcome by increasing the number of model simulations, a high resolution pass quantified the importance of the top 10 ranked variables. The case study also highlighted the need to improve the adopted SA framework by considering a different methodology considering different climate scenarios and alternative input variable handling strategies.
机译：在这项研究中，使用敏感性分析（SA）理论和技术来估计输入变量对城市供水系统产量估计的敏感性。所考虑的SA技术包括莫里斯方法和傅立叶振幅灵敏度测试（FAST），包括相关的扩展FAST。进行了一个简单的城市供水系统的案例研究，以评估其适用性，并研究这些技术的局限性以及所采用的SA框架。结果表明，在所有实验中，水流均占主导地位，供应可靠性阈值，上限规则曲线和连续数月的限制阈值具有后续重要性。通过筛选，通过FAST和扩展FAST验证了Morris方法中26个考虑变量的重要性排名。一旦通过增加模型仿真的数量克服了较小的错误，高分辨率的通过就量化了排名前10位的变量的重要性。案例研究还强调了需要通过考虑不同气候情景和替代性输入变量处理策略的不同方法来改进已采用的SA框架。

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