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On-line sensitivity analysis of Markov chains

机译:马尔可夫链的在线敏感性分析

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摘要

Discrete-event systems modeled as continuous-time Markov processes and characterized by some integer-valued parameter are considered. The problem addressed is that of estimating performance sensitivities with respect to this parameter by directly observing a single sample path of the system. The approach is based on transforming the nominal Markov chain into a reduced augmented chain, the stationary-state probabilities which can be easily combined to obtain stationary-state probability sensitivities with respect to the given parameter. Under certain conditions, the reduced augmented chain state transitions are observable with respect to the state transitions of the system itself, and no knowledge of the nominal Markov-chain state of the transition rates is required. Applications for some queueing systems are included. The approach incorporates estimation of unknown transition rates when needed and is extended to real-valued parameters.
机译:考虑将离散事件系统建模为连续时间马尔可夫过程并以一些整数值参数为特征。解决的问题是通过直接观察系统的单个样本路径来估计关于此参数的性能敏感性。该方法基于将标称马尔可夫链转换为简化的增广链,可以很容易地组合稳态概率,以相对于给定参数获得稳态概率敏感性。在某些条件下,相对于系统本身的状态转换,可以观察到减少的增强链状态转换,并且不需要知道转换速率的标称马尔可夫链状态。包括某些排队系统的应用程序。该方法在需要时合并了未知转换率的估计,并扩展为实值参数。

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