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首页> 外文期刊>Biology Bulletin >A Computer Model of Plague Epizootic Process in the Great Gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) Settlements: Description and Test for Adequacy
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A Computer Model of Plague Epizootic Process in the Great Gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) Settlements: Description and Test for Adequacy

机译：大沙鼠定居点鼠疫流行过程的计算机模型：描述和充足性测试

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摘要

The spread of plague epizootics in areas with natural plague foci, including Rhombomys opimus settlements, is usually studied in the course of annual epizootiological observations. Direct studies on the structure of epizootics and parameters of their spread are labor-intensive and, therefore, rare. Nevertheless, a number of authors have performed such studies using different methods, which made it possible to accumulate a certain factual material. This material has provided a basis for a computer model of the epizootic process in R. opimus settlements with interactively adjustable parameters. Mathematically, the model is based on a probabilistic cellular automation. The model conceptually deals with the same types of settlements as in nature: settlements with acute development of the disease, settlements with a certain proportion of immune individuals among rodents, and those not affected by an epizootic and representing a reserve for its further development. The groups of colonies (microfoci) separated from each other and unevenly distributed in the working space of the model are clearly distinguished. The epizootic process in the working space of the model shows more or less ordered cyclic fluctuations, which resemble the curve of epizootic activity in nature, and advances at a rate of 150 m to 1.5 km per 1.7-2.7 months, which well agrees with parameters recorded in field experiments with isotope-tagged animals and in the course of direct observations on the epizootic process in nature Thus, the main characteristics of the model epizootic process are quantitatively and qualitatively close to its natural analogue, which is evidence that the proposed model is conceptually correct and adequate.
机译：通常在每年的动物流行病学观测过程中研究鼠疫流行病在具有自然鼠疫病灶的地区（包括菱形鼠疫定居点）的扩散。对动物流行病的结构及其传播参数的直接研究是劳动密集型的，因此很少见。然而，许多作者使用不同的方法进行了此类研究，这使得积累某些事实材料成为可能。该材料为具有互动可调参数的鸦片定居点的流行过程提供了计算机模型的基础。在数学上，该模型基于概率蜂窝自动化。该模型在概念上处理与自然界相同类型的定居点：疾病急性发展的定居点，啮齿动物中具有一定比例的免疫个体的定居点，以及不受流行病影响并代表其进一步发展的定居点的定居点。清晰地区分了彼此分离且在模型的工作空间中分布不均的菌落（微焦点）组。模型工作空间中的流行过程显示出或多或少有序的周期性波动，类似于自然界的活动曲线，并且每1.7-2.7个月以150 m至1.5 km的速度前进，这与参数很吻合记录在有同位素标记动物的野外实验中，以及在直接观察自然界动物流行过程的过程中。因此，模型动物流行过程的主要特征在数量和质量上都接近其自然类似物，这证明所提出的模型是在概念上正确和充分。

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  • 来源
    《Biology Bulletin》 |2010年第7期|p.733-740|共8页
  • 作者

    V. M. Dubyanskiy; L. A. Burdelov;

  • 作者单位

    Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, 500074 Kazakhstan;

    Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, 500074 Kazakhstan;

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