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首页> 外文期刊>Biomass & bioenergy >Exploration Of Regional And Global Cost-supply Curves Of Biomass Energy From Short-rotation Crops At Abandoned Cropland And Rest Land Under Four Ipcc Sres Land-use Scenarios
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Exploration Of Regional And Global Cost-supply Curves Of Biomass Energy From Short-rotation Crops At Abandoned Cropland And Rest Land Under Four Ipcc Sres Land-use Scenarios

机译：四种Ipcc土地利用情景下废弃农田和休耕地短程轮作作物的生物质能区域和全球成本供应曲线的探索

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We explored the production cost of energy crops at abandoned agricultural land and at rest land at a regional and a global level to the year 2050 using four different land-use scenarios. The estimations were based on grid cell data on the productivity of short-rotation crops on the available land over time and assumptions regarding the capital and the labour input required to reach these productivity levels. It was concluded that large amounts of grown biomass at abandoned agricultural land and rest land, 130-270 EJ yr~(-1) (about 40-70% of the present energy consumption) may be produced at costs below $2GJ~(-1) by 2050 (present lower limit of cost of coal). Interesting regions because of their low production cost and significant potentials are the Former USSR, Oceania, Eastern and Western Africa and East Asia. Such low costs presume significant land productivity improvements over time and cost reductions due to learning and capital-labour substitution. An assessment of biomass fuel cost, using the primary biomass energy costs, showed that the future costs of biomass liquid fuels may be in the same order of the present diesel production costs, although this may change in the long term. Biomass-derived electricity costs are at present slightly higher than electricity baseload costs and may directly compete with estimated future production costs of fossil fuel electricity with CO_2 sequestration. The present world electricity consumption of around 20PWhyr~(-1) may be generated in 2050 at costs below $45 MWh~(-1) in Al and Bl and below $55 MWh~(-1) in A2 and B2. At costs of $60 MWh~(-1) about 18 (A2) to 53 (Al)PWhyr~(-1) can be produced.
机译：我们使用四种不同的土地利用情景，研究了到2050年区域和全球范围内废弃农业用地和休耕地的能源作物的生产成本。这些估计是基于网格单元数据，该数据关于随时间推移可用土地上短轮作作物的生产力，以及关于为达到这些生产力水平所需的资本和劳动力投入的假设。结论是，在低于$ 2GJ〜（-）的成本下，可能会在废弃的农业用地和休耕地大量生产130-270 EJ yr〜（-1）（约占当前能源消耗的40-70％）的生物质。 1）到2050年（目前煤炭成本的下限）。有趣的地区是前苏联，大洋洲，东部和西部非洲以及东亚，因为它们的生产成本低且潜力巨大。这种低廉的成本假定随着时间的推移土地生产力将显着提高，并且由于学习和资本劳动替代而导致成本降低。使用主要生物质能源成本进行的生物质燃料成本评估显示，生物质液体燃料的未来成本可能与目前的柴油生产成本处于相同的顺序，尽管从长远来看可能会改变。目前，生物质衍生的电力成本略高于电力基本负荷成本，并且可能会与固存CO_2的化石燃料电力的未来估计生产成本直接竞争。目前世界上约20PWhyr〜（-1）的电力消耗可能在2050年产生，其成本在Al和Bl低于$ 45 MWh〜（-1），在A2和B2低于$ 55 MWh〜（-1）。以$ 60 MWh〜（-1）的成本，大约可以生产18（A2）至53（Al）PWhyr〜（-1）。

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