Commentary: Models can be powerful tools for making decisions about effective and efficient health care

Arjan Shahani

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Commentary: Models can be powerful tools for making decisions about effective and efficient health care

机译：评论：模型可以成为决策有效和高效医疗保健的强大工具

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Max O Bachmann and Gwyn Bevan explain a method for making informed decisions about the size of a total purchasing site to manage the risks of rare costly referrals. A randomised controlled trial is clearly not practicable for obtaining the necessary information. They suppose that the occurrence of rare referrals can be mimicked by a mathematical model called a Poisson process. The key assumptions that point to a Poisson process are that rare referrals occur at random and that such referrals are independent within each category and between categories. The assumption of independence seems reasonable for the categories selected, so the chosen mathematical model for describing the referrals is reasonable. This mathematical model does not cover dependent referrals—for example) for infection, which increases the risk of further referrals in the area served by a general practice.

机译：Max O Bachmann和Gwyn Bevan解释了一种方法，该方法可针对整个采购站点的规模做出明智的决定，以管理罕见的昂贵转介风险。为了获得必要的信息，随机对照试验显然不可行。他们认为可以通过称为Poisson过程的数学模型来模拟罕见推荐的发生。指向泊松过程的关键假设是，罕见的引荐是随机发生的，并且这种引荐在每个类别内以及类别之间是独立的。对于所选类别，独立性的假设似乎是合理的，因此所选择的描述推荐对象的数学模型是合理的。该数学模型不涵盖因感染而导致的转诊风险，例如，这会增加在常规服务范围内进一步转诊的风险。

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《British Medical Journal》 |1996年第7064期|p.1057|共1页
作者
Arjan Shahani;
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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类医药、卫生;
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6. Commentary: models can be powerful tools for making decisions about effective and efficient health care. [O] . A. Shahani 1996

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7. Commentary: models can be powerful tools for making decisions about effective and efficient health care. [O] . Shahani, A. 1996

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Commentary: Models can be powerful tools for making decisions about effective and efficient health care

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