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首页> 外文期刊>Building and Environment >Estimating dynamic climate change effects of material use in buildings-Timing, uncertainty, and emission sources
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Estimating dynamic climate change effects of material use in buildings-Timing, uncertainty, and emission sources

机译：估算材料在建筑物时序，不确定性和排放来源的动态气候变化影响

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Material use in buildings affects the climate over centuries, however, temporal aspects are often ignored in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Results too often promise uncontested precision of impacts occurring far into the future. Additionally, the validity of building LCAs is being questioned over inadequate scope and inventory.A dynamic LCA method for material use in buildings that addresses those concerns is presented, along with a case study of 20 buildings. In particular, a novel solution to account for delayed emissions is presented, along with future technological improvements. Climate change effects of material use in construction, operation, and end-of-life phases are estimated, from production, transport, construction-waste incineration, biogenic carbon sequestration, and cement carbonation. Building subpart metrics reveal drivers of impacts and are used for generating statistical emission profiles.Application on a bottom-up harmonized dataset produces statistical results for building types (typology, timber/concrete) and building subparts (building elements, material categories). Global warming policy targets requires that the building industry focuses on interventions with short-term effects, such as low-impact materials in the construction phase and reduced construction waste.Uncertainty is estimated, and parameter influence assessed with global sensitivity analysis. Time horizon (TH), building lifetime, and construction waste parameters are found most sensitive. The method reduces uncertainty of postulated future impacts; an important step in the direction of policy-relevant modeling. We recommend that building LCA modeling practice adopts the presented methodological concepts to gain trust and policy-relevance.
机译：在建筑物中使用的材料影响了几个世纪以来的气候，然而，在生命周期评估（LCA）中往往忽略时间方面。结果经常承诺无可争议地发生的影响较远的影响。此外，建筑物LCA的有效性受到不足的范围和库存。提出了解决这些问题的建筑物中的动态LCA方法，以及20栋建筑的案例研究。特别是，提出了一种用于延迟排放的新型解决方案以及未来的技术改进。估计生产，运输，锻炼废焚烧，生物碳封存和水泥碳化，估计施工，操作和寿命阶段的材料的气候变化影响。构建Subpart指标揭示了影响的驱动程序，用于生成统计排放型材。自下而上的协调数据集上的应用产生了建筑类型（类型，木材/混凝土）和构建子部分（建筑元素，材料类别）的统计结果。全球变暖政策目标要求建筑业专注于短期效应的干预措施，例如施工阶段的低抗冲材料和减少的建筑废物。估计，并通过全局敏感性分析评估参数影响。时间地平线（Th），建筑寿命和施工废物参数最敏感。该方法降低了假定未来影响的不确定性;政策相关建模方向的一个重要步骤。我们建议建立LCA建模实践采用所提出的方法论概念，以获得信任和政策相关性。

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