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A probabilistic-based methodology for predicting mould growth in facade constructions

机译：基于概率的方法来预测立面建筑中的霉菌生长

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摘要

Predicting mould growth on facade constructions during design is important for preventing financial loss, and ensuring a healthy and comfortable indoor environment. Uncertainties in predicting mould growth are related to the representation of the biological phenomenon, the climate exposure and the material uncertainties. This paper proposes a probabilistic-based methodology that assesses the performance of facade constructions against mould growth and accounts for the aforementioned uncertainties. A comprehensive representation of mould growth is ensured by integrating several mould models in a combined outcome. This approach enables a more comprehensible and useful illustration between continuous mould growth intensities and their corresponding likelihoods. The outdoor climate exposure is represented by stochastic models derived by real time-series analysis according to autoregressive-moving-average models. The methodology is applied to investigate the influence of several parameters and the performance of several construction assemblies. This paper proposes a method to evaluate the facade performance that can facilitate reliability-based design and optimisation of facade construction.
机译：在设计过程中预测立面结构上的霉菌生长对于防止财务损失和确保健康舒适的室内环境非常重要。预测霉菌生长的不确定性与生物现象，气候暴露和材料不确定性的表示有关。本文提出了一种基于概率的方法，该方法可评估立面结构对抗霉菌生长的性能并解决上述不确定性。通过将多个模具模型集成在一起，可以确保模具生长的全面表示。这种方法可以使连续的霉菌生长强度与其对应的可能性之间的关系更易理解和有用。根据自回归移动平均模型，通过实时序列分析得出的随机模型代表室外气候暴露。该方法用于研究几个参数的影响和几个建筑装配体的性能。本文提出了一种评估立面性能的方法，该方法可以促进基于可靠性的立面设计和立面结构的优化。

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