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首页> 外文期刊>Building and Environment >Global sensitivity analysis of an urban microclimate system under uncertainty: Design and case study
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Global sensitivity analysis of an urban microclimate system under uncertainty: Design and case study

机译：不确定性下城市小气候系统的全球敏感性分析：设计和案例研究

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Over the last decade, significant efforts have been made to develop sophisticated physics-based urban simulators, given the undeniable need for sustainable-city initiatives to consider the potential impacts of climate change and massive urban growth. Nevertheless, even as a growing number of researchers have expanded their scope to the urban realm, there remain many problems resulting from the complexity of the urban microclimate, such as the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. This study is initiated with the intention to account for uncertainty in developing more coherent and integrated strategies concerning the energy and environmental issues in an urban system. The analysis builds upon the previously reported and updated Urban Weather Generator (UWG) to present a deep look into an existing urban microclimate system in Abu Dhabi (UAE). The case-specific baseline information is generated for the UWG and a global regression-based sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo technique is performed. Based on 30 candidate inputs covering the meteorological factors, urban characteristics, vegetation variables, and building systems, the uncertainty analysis indicates that the UWG is a fairly robust simulator to approximate the urban thermal behavior in downtown Abu Dhabi for different seasons. The identified significant factors will be the subject of future research to gain a higher resolution of critical urban simulation inputs, thereby providing more informed domain knowledge of the underlying mechanisms driving the microclimatic effect on the energy and environmental performances. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
机译：在过去的十年中，考虑到对可持续城市计划的不可否认的需求，以考虑气候变化和大规模城市增长的潜在影响，已经做出了巨大的努力来开发基于物理的复杂的城市模拟器。然而，即使越来越多的研究人员将研究范围扩大到城市领域，由于城市小气候的复杂性仍然存在许多问题，例如城市热岛效应。进行本研究的目的是考虑到在制定有关城市系统中能源和环境问题的更加协调一致的综合策略时的不确定性。该分析建立在先前报告和更新的城市天气生成器（UWG）的基础上，以深入了解阿布扎比（UAE）现有的城市小气候系统。为UWG生成特定于案例的基线信息，并使用蒙特卡洛技术进行基于全局回归的敏感性分析。根据涵盖气象因素，城市特征，植被变量和建筑系统的30个候选输入，不确定性分析表明，UWG是一个相当强大的模拟器，可以近似估算出不同季节阿布扎比市中心的城市热行为。确定的重要因素将成为未来研究的主题，以获得更高分辨率的关键城市模拟输入，从而提供有关驱动微气候效应对能源和环境绩效的潜在机制的更全面的知识。由Elsevier Ltd.发布

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