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Future trends of building heating and cooling loads and energy consumption in different climates

机译：不同气候条件下建筑物供暖和制冷负荷和能源消耗的未来趋势

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摘要

Principal component analysis of dry-bulb temperature, wet-bulb temperature and global solar radiation was considered, and a new climatic index (principal component Z) determined for two emissions scenarios - low and medium forcing. Multi-year building energy simulations were conducted for generic air-conditioned office buildings in Harbin, Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming and Hong Kong, representing the five major architectural climates in China. Regression models were developed to correlate the simulated monthly heating and cooling loads and building energy use with the corresponding Z. The coefficient of determination (R~2) was largely within 0.78-0.99, indicating strong correlation. A decreasing trend of heating load and an increasing trend of cooling load due to climate change in future years were observed. For low forcing, the overall impact on the total building energy use would vary from 4.2% reduction in severe cold Harbin (heating-dominated) in the north to 4.3% increase in subtropical Hong Kong (cooling-dominated) in the south. In Beijing and Shanghai where heating and cooling are both important, the average annual building energy use in 2001 -2100 would only be about 0.8% and 0.7% higher than that in 1971-2000, respectively.
机译：考虑了干球温度，湿球温度和全球太阳辐射的主成分分析，并确定了两种排放情景（低强迫和中等强迫）的新气候指数（主要成分Z）。针对哈尔滨，北京，上海，昆明和香港的通用空调办公楼进行了多年建筑能耗模拟，代表了中国的五种主要建筑气候。建立了回归模型，以将模拟的每月供暖和制冷负荷以及建筑能耗与相应的Z相关联。确定系数（R〜2）大致在0.78-0.99之内，表明相关性很强。观察到未来几年由于气候变化导致的热负荷下降趋势和冷负荷上升趋势。对于低强迫，对建筑总能耗的总体影响范围从北部的哈尔滨严寒（供暖为主）减少4.2％到南部的亚热带香港（制冷为主）减少4.3％。在供暖和制冷都很重要的北京和上海，2001年-2100年的年平均建筑能耗仅分别比1971-2000年高约0.8％和0.7％。

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  • 来源
    《Building and Environment》 |2011年第1期|p.223-234|共12页
  • 作者

    Kevin K.W. Wan; Danny H.W. Li; Dalong Liu; Joseph C. Lam;

  • 作者单位

    Building Energy Research Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China;

    rnBuilding Energy Research Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China;

    rnSchool of Architecture, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Shaanxi 710055, China;

    rnBuilding Energy Research Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    principal component analysis; office buildings; energy use; general circulation models; climate change; China;

    机译：主成分分析办公大楼;能源使用;一般流通模型;气候变化;中国;

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