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The dynamic effects of the Asian financial crisis on construction demand and tender price levels in Singapore

机译:亚洲金融危机对新加坡建筑需求和投标价格水平的动态影响

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摘要

The paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness of applying a sophisticated technique to examine, by measuring, the dynamic effects of an external shock on the construction industry via two macro-level indicators. The time series for 'value of contracts awarded' (or contractor's new orders), a proxy for demand for construction, and the 'tender price index' are used for the analysis, with the Asian financial crisis as the intervention event. The methodology comprises five main stages to produce appropriate ARIMA models that describe the characteristic of the underlying process. The main advantage of the intervention analysis, as noted, is that the estimates of the effect are based on the entire series for Value of contracts awarded' or'tender price index', and not on a simple comparison of a few quarters' data.
机译:本文旨在通过两种宏观水平的指标,通过测量外部冲击对建筑行业的动态影响,来展示应用一种先进技术来检查建筑的实用性。分析使用了“授予的合同价值”(或承包商的新订单),代表建筑需求的代理和“投标价格指数”的时间序列,其中以亚洲金融危机为干预事件。该方法包括五个主要阶段,以生成描述基础过程特征的适当ARIMA模型。如前所述,干预分析的主要优点是效果的估计是基于授予“或”投标价格指数”的合同价值的整个系列,而不是基于几个季度数据的简单比较。

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