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Forecast models for actual construction time and cost

机译：实际施工时间和成本的预测模型

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The actual construction time and cost of construction projects may be affected by the client, project and contractual characteristics and in many cases can be very different from the contract time and cost. In this paper, details of 93 Australian construction projects are used to develop several models for actual construction time and cost prediction. A forward crossvalidation regression analysis is used for the development of the model for actual construction time forecast when client sector, contractor selection method, contractual arrangement, project type, contract period and contract sum are known. The standard deviation of the deleted residual indicates the best model for actual construction time prediction to comprise the independent variables log contract time, lump sum procurement and non-standard contractor selection. Regression models are also developed for forecasting the actual construction time and cost when client sector, contractor selection method, contractual arrangement and project type are known while contract period and contract sum are estimated. Different forms of regression analyses, including the standard regression and the crossvalidation regression, are used and the crossvalidation regression model with the smallest deleted residual sum of squares is selected. Since these models for time and cost are dependent on the contract period and contract sum being known, it is necessary to investigate the effects in situations where these have to be estimated. The results of the sensitivity analyses show that the errors in predicted actual construction time become smaller as the contract period increases. In contrast, the errors in predicted actual construction cost are virtually the same for large and small projects. The effects of different project type, contractor selection method and contractual arrangement are also examined. The results indicate that the actual construction time for industrial project is the longest when compared with residential, educational and recreational projects and that significant savings in actual construction time can be achieved when negotiated tender and design and build contract are used instead of the traditional open tendering and lump sum contract approaches. Finally, some practical applications of the models are illustrated for predicting the actual construction time and cost based on the risks and uncertainties of different client sector, contractor selection method, contractual arrangement and project type.
机译：建设项目的实际施工时间和成本可能受客户，项目和合同特征的影响，并且在许多情况下可能与合同时间和成本有很大不同。在本文中，将利用93个澳大利亚建设项目的详细信息来开发用于实际建设时间和成本预测的几种模型。在了解客户部门，承包商选择方法，合同安排，项目类型，合同期限和合同金额的情况下，使用正向交叉验证回归分析开发实际施工时间预测模型。删除的残差的标准偏差表明了用于实际施工时间预测的最佳模型，该模型包括自变量记录合同时间，一次性采购和非标准承包商的选择。还建立了回归模型，以在知道客户部门，承包商选择方法，合同安排和项目类型时，在估算合同期限和合同金额时，预测实际的施工时间和成本。使用不同形式的回归分析，包括标准回归和交叉验证回归，并选择删除残差平方和最小的交叉验证回归模型。由于这些时间和成本模型取决于合同期限和已知的合同金额，因此有必要研究在必须估算这些情况的情况下的影响。敏感性分析的结果表明，随着合同期的增加，预计实际施工时间的误差变小。相反，对于大型和小型项目，预测的实际建筑成本中的误差实际上是相同的。还检查了不同项目类型，承包商选择方法和合同安排的效果。结果表明，与住宅，教育和娱乐项目相比，工业项目的实际施工时间最长，并且使用谈判的招标，设计和建造合同代替传统的公开招标可以节省大量的实际施工时间。一揽子合同法。最后，说明了该模型的一些实际应用，以根据不同客户部门的风险和不确定性，承包商选择方法，合同安排和项目类型来预测实际施工时间和成本。

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