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Regulatory energy calculations versus real energy use in high-performance houses

机译：高性能房屋中的法规能源计算与实际能源使用

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How accurately can official energy performance calculations assess the real energy use in high-performance houses? This question was investigated by analysing 537 dwellings. Data on building characteristics and calculated performance from the Flemish Energy Performance of Buildings (EPB) database were complemented with data from energy utilities and surveys of inhabitants, their socio-demographic characteristics and user behaviours. While the real and theoretical energy uses were strongly correlated, the official calculation method overestimated the heating energy use of most houses while neglecting important electricity end uses. The prediction error varied strongly between individual cases. Two options within the calculation procedure had a significant impact on these prediction errors: the use of default values for the air tightness of the building envelope and the reported return temperature of the space heating system. The simplified calculation of net domestic hot water consumption and the real heating of the master bedrooms also affected prediction accuracy. However, extrapolations are hazardous due to the risk of selection and non-response biases implied by the approach and the need for further research into the causalities. Nonetheless, the findings stress the importance of accurate input data and realistic default values for calculation models used for high-performance buildings.
机译：官方的能源绩效计算能够多么准确地评估高性能房屋的实际能耗？通过分析537处住所调查了这个问题。来自佛兰芒建筑物能源性能（EPB）数据库中有关建筑物特征和计算性能的数据得到了来自能源公用事业公司和居民调查，他们的社会人口统计学特征和用户行为的数据的补充。尽管实际能源消耗和理论能源消耗之间存在很大的相关性，但官方的计算方法高估了大多数房屋的供暖能源消耗，而忽略了重要的电力最终用途。各个案例之间的预测误差差异很大。计算过程中的两个选项对这些预测误差有重大影响：使用建筑物围护结构气密性的默认值以及所报告的空间供暖系统的返回温度。家用净热水消耗和主卧室的实际供暖的简化计算也影响了预测的准确性。但是，由于选择的风险和方法所隐含的非答复偏见以及因果关系的进一步研究的需要，外推是危险的。尽管如此，调查结果强调了对于高性能建筑使用的计算模型而言，准确输入数据和实际默认值的重要性。

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