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Methodology for the survival analysis of urban building stocks

机译：城市建筑存量生存分析的方法

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摘要

A new methodology is presented for estimating age distribution and survival functions of an urban building stock. This allows for a random sample of the undemolished stock together with a complete inventory count of the demolished part to create a Kaplan-Meier estimator for the survival function. This method can be applied to any building stock with difficult access to data. A demonstration of this method is applied to a sample of German urban stock and used to illustrate the data-collection process, the survival analysis and an estimate of the dynamics. Findings from this sample indicate a slower dynamic in the residential part in comparison with the non-residential part, which is related to seemingly different survival functions. Another finding is that the percentage of undemolished buildings seems much lower for older buildings than for the younger structures. Through a Weibull fit, little future change in this survival pattern is estimated. The estimates obtained in this preliminary study challenge many assumptions of service life, economic life and effective life time. It is found that the effective life time of building stocks is much higher than generally assumed, and possibly independent of their age. For recent buildings, the implication is whether the existing service life or economic life approaches are adequate to understand and plan for a potentially higher survival rate.
机译：提出了一种估计城市建筑群的年龄分布和生存功能的新方法。这样就可以对未拆卸库存进行随机抽样，同时对拆卸零件进行完整的库存盘点，以创建生存函数的Kaplan-Meier估计器。这种方法可以应用于任何难以访问数据的建筑。该方法的演示应用于德国城市股票样本，并用于说明数据收集过程，生存分析和动态估计。从该样本中发现，与非住宅部分相比，住宅部分的动态较慢，这与表面上不同的生存功能有关。另一个发现是，较旧的建筑物未拆除的建筑物所占的百分比似乎比较年轻的建筑物要低得多。通过威布尔拟合，估计该生存方式的未来变化很小。在这项初步研究中获得的估计值对使用寿命，经济寿命和有效寿命的许多假设提出了挑战。结果发现，建筑存货的有效寿命比一般假设的要长得多，并且可能与存货的年龄无关。对于最新的建筑物，其含义是现有的使用寿命或经济寿命方法是否足以理解和计划潜在的更高的生存率。

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