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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of Mathematical Biology >Simulating the Effect of Quarantine on the Spread of the 1918―19 Flu in Central Canada
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Simulating the Effect of Quarantine on the Spread of the 1918―19 Flu in Central Canada

机译：模拟隔离对加拿大中部1918-19年流感蔓延的影响

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摘要

Quarantine is often proposed and sometimes used to control the spread of infectious diseases through a human population. Yet there is usually little or no information on the effectiveness of attempting to quarantine humans that is not of an anecdotal or conjectural nature. This paper describes how a compartmental model for the geographic spread of infectious diseases can be used to address the potential effectiveness of human quarantine. The model is applied to data from the historical record in central Canada around the time of the 1918―19 influenza epidemic. Information on the daily mobility patterns of individuals engaged in the fur trade throughout the region prior to, during, and immediately after the epidemic are used to determine whether rates of travel were affected by informal quarantine policies imposed by community leaders. The model is then used to assess the impact of observed differences in travel on the spread of the epidemic. Results show that when mobility rates are very low, as in this region, quarantine practices must be highly effective before they alter disease patterns significantly. Simulation results suggest, though, that effectiveness varies depending on when the limitation on travel between communities is implemented and how long it lasts, and that a policy of introducing quarantine at the earliest possible time may not always lead to the greatest reduction in cases of a disease.
机译：经常提出隔离措施，有时将其用于控制​​人群中传染病的传播。然而，通常很少或没有关于尝试隔离人类的有效性的信息，而这并非轶事或推测性质。本文介绍了如何使用传染性疾病地理分布的隔离模型来解决人类隔离的潜在效力。该模型适用于1918-19年流感大流行期间加拿大中部的历史记录中的数据。在该流行病发生之前，之中和之后，有关整个区域从事皮草贸易的个人的日常出行方式的信息用于确定出行率是否受到社区领导人实施的非正式检疫政策的影响。然后，该模型用于评估所观察到的旅行差异对流行病传播的影响。结果表明，当流动率很低时，例如在该地区，隔离措施必须非常有效，然后才能大幅度改变疾病模式。但是，模拟结果表明，有效性的变化取决于实施社区之间旅行的限制时间和持续时间，并且在可能的情况下尽早实施隔离的政策可能不会总是导致最大程度的减少。疾病。

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