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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of Volcanology >Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano, Central Mexico
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Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano, Central Mexico

机译：1994年中部墨西哥Popocatépetl火山喷发的前兆地震活动

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Popocatépetl Volcano is located in the central Mexican Volcanic Belt, within a densely populated region inhabited by over 20 million people. The eruptive history of this volcano indicates that it is capable of producing a wide range of eruptions, including Plinian events. After nearly 70 years of quiescence, Popocatépetl reawakened in December 21, 1994. The eruptive activity has continued up until the date of this submission and has been characterized by a succession of lava dome growth-and-destruction episodes, similar to events that have apparently been typical for Popocatépetl since the fourteenth century. In this regime, the episodes of effusive and moderately explosive activity alternate with long periods of almost total quiescence. In this paper we analyze five years of volcano-tectonic seismicity preceding the initial eruption of the current episode. The evolution of the V-T seismicity shows four distinct stages, which we interpret in terms of the internal processes which precede an eruption after a long period of quiescence. The thermal effects of a magma intrusion at depth, the fracturing related to the slow development of magma-related fluid pathways, the concentration of stress causing a protracted acceleration of this process, and a final relaxation or redistribution of the stress shortly before the initial eruption are reflected in the rates of V-T seismic energy release. A hindsight analysis of this activity shows that the acceleration of the seismicity in the third stage asymptotically forecast the time of the eruption. The total seismic energy release needed to produce an eruption after a long period of quiescence is related to the volume of rock that must be fractured so imposing a characteristic threshold limit for polygenetic volcanoes, limit that was reached by Popocatépetl before the eruption.
机译：Popocatépetl火山位于墨西哥中部火山带，在人口稠密的地区，人口超过2000万人。该火山的爆发历史表明，它能够产生包括普利尼亚事件在内的广泛爆发。经过近70年的沉寂，Popocatépetl在1994年12月21日重新苏醒。喷发活动一直持续到本次提交之日为止，其特征是一系列熔岩穹顶的生长和破坏，类似于明显发生的事件。自十四世纪起就成为Popocatépetl的典型代表。在这种情况下，爆发性和中等爆发性活动的发作与长时间的几乎完全静止交替。在本文中，我们分析了当前事件最初爆发之前的五年火山构造地震活动。 V-T地震活动的演变显示出四个不同的阶段，我们根据长期静止后喷发之前的内部过程来解释这些阶段。深部岩浆侵入的热效应，与岩浆相关的流体通道缓慢发展有关的破裂，应力集中导致该过程的持续加速以及应力在初始喷发前的最终松弛或重新分布VT地震能量释放率反映出来。对该活动的事后分析表明，第三阶段地震活动的加速度渐近地预测了喷发的时间。长时间静止后产生喷发所需的总地震能量释放量与必须破碎的岩石量有关，因此对多基因火山施加了特征性阈值限制，该限制是波波卡佩特火山在喷发前达到的。

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