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Pocketbook Predictions of Presidential Elections

机译：总统选举的袖珍书预测

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Political scientists have long known that "pocketbook issues" strongly affect the fortunes of presidents and other political leaders. Economists studying this relationship have established that certain economic factors-such as growth in income, inflation, and unemployment-directly affect the votes of the incumbent party in the presidential elections. Other institutional factors, such as the number of terms a party has occupied the oval office, also appear to affect voting patterns. We present a set of simple "rational voter" economic models, which includes economic and institutional factors largely known in advance of the election. Such models typically explain about 75 percent of the variation of the popular vote in presidential elections since 1916. Such time series models, however, are bedeviled by the lack of observations, since presidential elections are only held every four years. To address this weakness, we specify and estimate a model with two methodological improvements. First, we use voting and economic data from the twenty largest states over elections since 1980, estimating parameters using pooled estimation techniques. Second, we improve the specification of the relevant variables, such as unemployment and the incidence of "limited wars," to more accurately reflect the motivations of contemporary voters. Our pooled state model forecast for 2004 indicates that economic conditions favor a narrow re-election for the incumbent President. We point out how some elections cannot be entirely explained with a rational voter model.
机译：政治学家早就知道“皮夹问题”会严重影响总统和其他政治领导人的命运。研究这种关系的经济学家已经确定，某些经济因素，例如收入的增长，通货膨胀和失业，会直接影响总统选举中现任政党的选票。其他制度因素，例如政党担任椭圆形办公室的任期数量，似乎也影响投票方式。我们提出了一套简单的“理性选民”经济模型，其中包括在选举之前广为人知的经济和体制因素。这种模型通常可以解释自1916年以来总统选举中大约75％的民众投票变化。但是，由于缺乏观察力，这种时间序列模型受到困扰，因为总统选举每四年举行一次。为了解决这一弱点，我们指定并评估了一个模型，该模型具有两种方法上的改进。首先，我们使用自1980年以来大选前二十个州的投票和经济数据，使用汇总估算技术估算参数。其次，我们改进了相关变量的规范，例如失业率和“有限战争”的发生率，以更准确地反映当代选民的动机。我们对2004年的州综合模型预测表明，经济形势有利于现任总统的连任。我们指出如何用理性的选民模型无法完全解释某些选举。

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