When two respected organizations-plus a famous Harvard economist-tackle the question of China's growth, they come up with widely different answers. In The Long Soft Fall in Chinese Growth, published on Oct. 20 by the Conference Board, China managing director David Hoffman and economist Andrew Polk write that the economy will stagnate as policymakers drag their feet on needed changes. The business group predicts annual growth in China's gross domestic product will fall to 4 percent by 2020. The New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute expects China to expand 6 percent that year-not as robust as in the past, but still pretty fast. In its study, Avoiding the Blind Alley, released on Oct. 22, the Society cites progress in China's reforms. Both reports appeared the week China announced third-quarter GDP grew 7.3 percent, the slowest rate in five years.
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机译：当两个受人尊敬的组织以及一个著名的哈佛经济学家讨论中国的增长问题时，他们提出了截然不同的答案。会议委员会在10月20日发布的《中国经济增长缓慢回落》中，中国常务董事大卫·霍夫曼（David Hoffman）和经济学家安德鲁·波克（Andrew Polk）写道，随着政策制定者拖延必要的变革，经济将陷入停滞。该商业集团预测，到2020年，中国国内生产总值（GDP）的年增长率将降至4％。总部位于纽约的亚洲协会政策研究所（Asia Society Policy Institute）预计，中国当年的经济增长率将达到6％，虽然不及过去，但仍相当快。该协会在10月22日发布的研究报告《避免盲巷》中援引了中国改革的进展。这两份报告都出现在中国宣布第三季度GDP增长7.3％的那一周，是五年来最低的速度。
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