Negotiations over how to shrink Greece's unaffordable government debt make the brinkmanship over the U.S. debt ceiling last summer look simple. In the U.S., almost everyone agreed that default would be disastrous. In Greece, default is probably unavoidable. The battle is over whether it happens gently, in what is known as a "consensual restructuring," or chaotically, in what is known as "all financial hell breaks loose." What makes the standoff over Greece so dangerous is that the players aren't just dug into two opposing positions, as the White House and the Tea Party were. There are multiple battle frontsand even fighting among supposed allies. "I can only tell you the negotiations are continuing," says Frank Vogl, a spokesman for the Institute of International Finance, which represents private creditors. "I can't tell you whether they'll be successful."
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