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A Ray of Hope For the Trade Gap

机译：贸易差距的希望之光

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Well, don't look for outright shrinkage, but the emerging strength in exports is the best sign yet that the rate of deterioration is slowing and that the deficit may even level off later this year. The March report on international trade was an eye-opener. The deficit for goods and services posted an unexpected narrowing to 62 billion dollars, from 65.6 billion dollars in February, reflecting a big 1.9 percent gain in exports, while imports fell by 0.8 percent. The immediate implication of the March trade surprise will show up in the governmenf s update of first-quarter economic growth on May 25. The March gap was much less than that assumed by Washington's number crunchers when they first reported growth at a 4.8 percent annual rate. Now economists believe the first-quarter pace will be revised to close to 6 percent. Trade may continue to be less of a drag on the economy this year. The goods sector best tells the story. For the first quarter, real exports of goods (which are adjusted for changes in export prices) increased at a 19.6 percent annual rate from the fourth quarter-the largest quarterly advance in nearly nine years. Some of that surge reflected a post-hurricane rebound, but if s not just a one-quarter blip. The growth rate from the previous year is now up to 12.4 percent, a pace not seen since 2000, while real imports are up only 7 percent (chart).
机译：好吧，不要寻求彻底的萎缩，但是出口的强劲增长是最好的迹象，表明恶化速度正在放缓，赤字甚至可能在今年晚些时候趋于平稳。 3月份有关国际贸易的报告大开眼界。商品和服务逆差从2月份的656亿美元收窄至620亿美元，反映出出口增长1.9％，进口下降0.8％。政府将在5月25日更新第一季度经济增长，这将显示3月份贸易意外的直接影响。3月份的差距远小于华盛顿的数字紧缩者最初报告年增长率为4.8％时所假设的差距。 。现在，经济学家认为，第一季度的增速将修正为接近6％。贸易今年对经济的拖累可能仍然较小。货物部门最能说明问题。第一季度，实际货物出口（根据出口价格的变化进行了调整）与第四季度相比增长了19.6％，这是近九年来最大的季度增长。其中的一些飙升反映出飓风过后的反弹，但不仅仅是四分之一的短暂。现在，上一年的增长率高达12.4％，这是2000年以来从未出现的速度，而实际进口仅增长了7％（图表）。

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