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PREFAB GAINS SIGNAL HOUSING PAIN

机译：PREFAB获得信号外壳

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WITH HOME SALES no longer soaring and inventories on the rise, there's little doubt that the housing market is cooling. But for the holdouts who need more evidence before they admit the party's over, the manufactured homes industry is worth close attention. One might assume the two move in tandem. Not so: Strength in manufactured housing often signals tough times for the larger housing market. And with no less an investor than Warren Buffett voicing support now, the stocks of the handful of publicly traded companies in the prefab sector might soon be due for a lift. Demand for manufactured homes-built in factories and transported to sites--has been brisk since Hurricane Katrina hit last August. The government has paid almost 900 million dollars for about 25,000 mobile and modular homes to provide dislocated residents roofs over their heads while they rebuild. But the industry's growth spurt isn't just disaster-related: Affordability is driving orders as well. And that's bad news for the rest of the housing industry, says Barbara Allen, first vice-president with Avondale Partners, a Nashville-based investment bank. She says housing starts, or the number of residential building projects begun, and the number of manufactured housing units sold have tended to move in opposite directions since the 1970s, but especially since the mid-'90s (chart). "Ifs countercyclical," agrees Paul Nouri, equity analyst with New York research shop Sidoti & Co.
机译：随着房屋销售不再飙升和库存上升，毫无疑问，房地产市场正在降温。但是对于那些需要更多证据才能证明党派结束的坚持派人士来说，人造房屋行业值得密切关注。一个人可能认为这两个动作是同时进行的。事实并非如此：制成住房的实力通常预示着更大的住房市场的艰难时期。由于现在的投资者不比沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）表示支持，预制件行业的少数上市公司的股票可能很快就会受到提振。自去年八月卡特里娜飓风袭击以来，对工厂建造和运输到现场的工业房屋的需求一直很旺盛。政府已斥资近9亿美元购买了大约25,000套移动房屋和模块化房屋，以在房屋重建时为居民提供顶棚。但是，该行业的增长突飞猛进不仅与灾难有关：负担能力也推动了订单。总部位于纳什维尔的投资银行Avondale Partners的第一副总裁芭芭拉·艾伦（Barbara Allen）表示，这对整个房地产行业都是个坏消息。她说，自1970年代以来，尤其是从90年代中期以来，住房开始兴建，或者住宅建筑项目开始数量增加，售出的住房制造单位数量趋向于相反。纽约研究机构Sidoti＆Co的股票分析师保罗·诺里（Paul Nouri）同意：“如果存在反周期性，”

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