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SO FAR, HOUSING IS SHRUGGING OFF THE RATE HIKES

机译:如此之遥,住房正在抑制房价上涨

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摘要

The Federal Reserve's pursuit of tighter financial conditions has resembled water torture in its small quarter-point hikes in interest rates. So how will we know when the drip-drip-drip finally starts to work? Keep an eye on housing. It's usually the first sector to crack. Housing's best times may already be behind it. However, the sector continues to show surprising resilience, as activity remains at a very high level (charts). So far, it has not shown anywhere near the weakness that is typically associated with a Fed tightening cycle, an indication that several more drops of monetary torment will be needed in order to effect a broader economic slowdown. In fact, some builders might even welcome a less hectic pace of activity to help them cope with growing shortages of labor and materials.
机译:美联储(Fed)寻求更严格的金融条件,就像在其小幅上调利率四分之一点时遭受酷刑一样。那么,我们如何知道滴灌滴灌何时终于开始起作用?密切注意房屋。它通常是第一个要破解的部门。住房的最佳时期可能已经过去了。但是,该行业的弹性仍然令人惊讶,因为活动仍处于很高的水平(图表)。到目前为止,它还没有显示出与美联储紧缩周期通常相关的弱点附近的任何地方,这表明为了实现更广泛的经济放缓,还需要再下降几倍的货币折磨。实际上,一些建筑商甚至可能会欢迎忙碌的活动节奏,以帮助他们应对日益增长的劳动力和材料短缺。

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