Large Real Exchange Rate Movements, Firm Dynamics, And Productivity Growth

Loretta Fung

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Large Real Exchange Rate Movements, Firm Dynamics, And Productivity Growth

机译：实际汇率大幅波动，公司动态和生产率增长

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Ce mémoire examine l'influence de changements importants dans les mouvements du taux de change réel sur le roulement des firmes et la taille de la production, et la contribution de ces décisions à la croissance de la productivité. Le modèle théorique proposé prédit que des appréciations de la monnaie domestique vont entraîner la fermeture d'entreprises, réduire les exportations des entreprises qui survivent, et accroître les ventes sur le marché local. L'effet net sur les ventes et la productivité dépend donc de la nature des changements dans les ventes locales et les exportations. On utilise des données taiwanaises au niveau de la firme pour mettre au test ces prédictions. Les résultats montrent que les appréciations de la monnaie en termes réels entraînent une expansion de l'échelle de production des entreprises qui survivent, ce qui enclenche une augmentation de productivité. Les résultats suggèrent l'existence d'un effet d'échelle significatif.%This paper examines the influence of large real exchange rate movements on firm turnover and production scale, and the contribution of these decisions to productivity growth. Our theoretical model predicts that home currency appreciations cause firm closure and reduce surviving firms' exports while boosting domestic sales. The net effect on sales and productivity therefore depends on changes in domestic sales and exports. Taiwanese firm-level data are used to test these predictions. The results show that real currency appreciations lead to scale expansion of surviving firms which in turn raises productivity. Our findings suggest the existence of a significant scale effect.

机译：本文考察了实际汇率变动的主要变化对公司营业额和生产规模的影响，以及这些决策对生产率增长的贡献。拟议的理论模型预测，本币升值将导致企业关闭，减少幸存企业的出口并增加本地市场的销售。因此，对销售和生产率的净影响取决于本地销售和出口变化的性质。台湾公司一级的数据用于检验这些预测。结果表明，实际货币升值导致幸存企业的生产规模扩大，从而触发了生产率的提高。结果表明存在显着的规模效应。％本文考察了实际汇率大幅度波动对公司营业额和生产规模的影响，以及这些决策对生产率增长的贡献。我们的理论模型预测，本币升值会导致公司倒闭，减少幸存的公司的出口，同时增加国内销售。因此，对销售和生产率的净影响取决于国内销售和出口的变化。台湾公司一级的数据用于检验这些预测。结果表明，实际货币升值导致幸存企业的规模扩张，进而提高了生产率。我们的发现表明存在明显的规模效应。

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《Canadian Journal of Economics》 |2008年第2期|p.391-424|共34页
作者
Loretta Fung;
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Department of Economics, University of Alberta;

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正文语种 eng
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7. We analyze, in this paper, a DSGE New Keynesian model with indi- visible labor where firms may belong to two different final goods producing sectors one where wages and employment are determined in competitive labor markets and the orther where wages and employment are the result of a contractual process between unions and firms. Bargaining between firms and monopoly unions implies real wage rigidity in the model and, in turn, an endogenous trade-off between output stabilization and infla- tion stabilization. We show that the negative effect of a productivity shock on inflation and the positive effect of a cost-push shock is crucially determined by the proportion of firms that belong to the competitive sec- tor. The larger is this number, the smaller are these effects. We derive a welfare based objective function as a second order Taylor approxima- tion of the expected utility of the economy's representative agent and we analyze optimal monetary policy. We show that the larger is the num- ber of firms that belong to the competitive sector, the smaller should be the response of the nominal interest rate to exogenous productivity and cost-push shocks. If we consider, however, an instrument rule where the interest rate must react to inflationary expectations, the rule is not af- fected by the structure of the labor market. The results of the model are consistent with a well known empirical regularity in macroeconomics, i.e. that employment volatility is larger than real wage volatility. [O] . Lorenza Rossi, Fabrizio Mattesini 100

机译：在本文中，我们分析了DsGE新凯恩斯主义模型，该模型具有明显的劳动力，其中企业可能属于两个不同的最终产品生产部门，其中工资和就业是在竞争性劳动力市场中确定的，而工资和就业是由工资和就业导致的。工会和公司之间的合同过程。企业和垄断联盟之间的讨价还价意味着模型中的实际工资刚性，反过来，产出稳定和通货膨胀稳定之间的内生权衡。我们表明，生产率冲击对通货膨胀的负面影响以及成本推动冲击的积极影响，主要取决于属于竞争部门的企业比例。这个数字越大，这些效果越小。我们得出一个基于福利的目标函数作为经济代理人的预期效用的二阶泰勒近似，我们分析最优货币政策。我们表明，属于竞争性行业的企业数量越大，名义利率对外生生产率和成本推动冲击的反应就越小。但是，如果我们考虑利率必须对通胀预期作出反应的工具规则，则该规则不受劳动力市场结构的影响。该模型的结果与宏观经济学中众所周知的经验规律一致，即就业波动率大于实际工资波动率。

Large Real Exchange Rate Movements, Firm Dynamics, And Productivity Growth

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