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The effects of the management of Lake Diefenbaker on downstream flooding

机译：迪芬贝克湖管理对下游洪水的影响

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摘要

The impact of management of Lake Diefenbaker, Saskatchewan, the Canadian Prairies' largest reservoir, on downstream flooding is examined over three large inflow events in 2005, 2011 and 2013. The reservoir stores inflows for water supply, recreational and ecological purposes and preferentially releases water in mid-winter for hydroelectricity generation. It can also have an important role in downstream flood mitigation. The analysis shows great uncertainty in inflows due to ungauged local inflows, and substantial errors in the mass balance of the reservoir associated primarily with high inflows. The management of the reservoir has been challenged by declining spring inflows since the 1960s with a trend for increasing minimum annual reservoir elevations over time. Management of the reservoir has undergone changes since 2011 to lower the minimum elevation so as to achieve the 1 July target level, resulting in very different effects on flooding in 2005, 2011 and 2013. In all years, the management of the reservoir reduced the maximum flooded area upstream of Saskatoon and the integrated flooded duration and area. In 2005 the area of flooding upstream of Saskatoon was reduced for all durations and in 2013 for durations shorter than 5 days, but in 2011 it was increased for durations between 5 and 20 days. Flooding on the Saskatchewan River, i.e. downstream of the confluence of the North and South Saskatchewan Rivers, was increased in 2011 due to the delay in the timing of the peak flow induced by reservoir operation. Elimination of downstream flooding in these years would have required continuous adjustment of outflows to optimize storage, which itself requires modelling the inflow hydrograph. Future operation of the reservoir should adopt such optimization and modelling, whilst considering the impact of non-stationarity due to climate change.
机译：考察了加拿大草原最大的水库萨斯喀彻温省迪芬贝克湖的管理对下游洪水的影响，该事件发生在2005年，2011年和2013年的三起大型流入事件中。水库存储流入的水用于供水，娱乐和生态目的，并优先释放水在冬季中用于水力发电。它也可以在减轻下游洪水中发挥重要作用。分析显示，由于未流入的局部流入量，流入量存在很大的不确定性，并且主要与大量流入量有关的储层质量平衡存在重大误差。自1960年代以来，水库的管理一直受到泉水流量下降的挑战，并且随着时间的推移，每年的最低水库最低海拔都有增加的趋势。自2011年以来，水库的管理发生了变化，降低了最低海拔高度，以实现7月1日的目标水平，从而对2005年，2011年和2013年的洪水造成了截然不同的影响。在所有年份中，水库的管理均降低了最高水位。萨斯卡通上游的水灾地区以及综合的洪水持续时间和地区。 2005年，萨斯卡通上游的洪灾面积在所有期间都减少了，2013年的持续时间少于5天，但在2011年则增加了5至20天。萨斯喀彻温省河（即北萨斯喀彻温省河和南萨斯喀彻温省河合流的下游）的洪水在2011年有所增加，这是由于水库运行诱发的高峰水流时间延迟所致。这些年来，要消除下游洪水，就需要不断调整流出量以优化存储，这本身就需要对流入水位图进行建模。在考虑气候变化引起的非平稳性影响的同时，水库的未来运行应采用这种优化和建模方法。

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  • 来源
    《Canadian Water Resources Journal》 |2016年第2期|261-272|共12页
  • 作者

    Shook Kevin; Pomeroy John W.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Saskatchewan, Ctr Hydrol, 117 Sci Pl, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5C8, Canada;

    Univ Saskatchewan, Ctr Hydrol, 117 Sci Pl, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5C8, Canada;

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