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首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Water Resources Journal >Flooding in the Nechako River Basin of Canada: A random forest modeling approach to flood analysis in a regulated reservoir system
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Flooding in the Nechako River Basin of Canada: A random forest modeling approach to flood analysis in a regulated reservoir system

机译：加拿大内恰科河流域的洪水：调节水库系统中洪水分析的随机森林建模方法

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摘要

Flooding events can have significant impacts, in terms of both loss of life and property damage. Analyzing floods to understand their processes and patterns improves our ability to predict when floods will occur. Under changing climate conditions, this will become even more important. The utility of an alternative approach to conventional flood analysis was investigated in a regulated river system with a reservoir, the Nechako River Basin located in British Columbia, Canada. Using the 1955-2008 daily discharge measured on the Nechako River discharge and its major tributaries, a random forest model was constructed to evaluate the relative importance of contributing discharges to the main stem during significant flood events in the downstream community of Prince George. Discharges from the unregulated Stellako and Nautley Rivers were found to be the most important variables during a spring flood. Conversely, during a winter flood, the regulated Skins Lake Spillway and the Kemano Powerhouse discharges were found to be the most important variables in the model. During periods of no flood, the main stem Nechako River at Isle Pierre discharge was the most important. This work provides a novel source of evidence that flow regulation on the Nechako River is an important indicator of downstream winter flood conditions in Prince George, potentially exacerbating ice jams and/or causing significant property damage and economic losses.
机译：洪水事件对生命财产损失和财产损失都可能产生重大影响。分析洪水以了解其过程和模式可以提高我们预测洪水何时发生的能力。在不断变化的气候条件下，这将变得更加重要。常规洪水分析的另一种方法的实用性是在带有水库的调节河流系统（位于加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的内恰科河盆地）中进行的。利用在Nechako河及其主要支流上测得的1955-2008年日排放量，建立了一个随机森林模型，以评估乔治王子下游社区发生重大洪水事件时对主要干流贡献排放量的相对重要性。在春季洪水期间，未经监管的斯特拉科河和瑙特利河的​​排放被认为是最重要的变量。相反，在冬季洪水期间，被调节的Skins Lake溢洪道和Kemano Powerhouse流量是模型中最重要的变量。在没有洪水的时期，最重要的是马恩岛皮埃尔河口的尼恰科河主干河。这项工作提供了新的证据来源，表明内查科河上的流量调节是乔治王子城下游冬季洪水状况的重要指标，可能加剧冰封和/或造成重大财产损失和经济损失。

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  • 来源
    《Canadian Water Resources Journal》 |2016年第2期|250-260|共11页
  • 作者

    Albers Sam J.; Dery Stephen J.; Petticrew Ellen L.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ British Columbia, Quesnel River Res Ctr, POB 28, Likely, BC, Canada;

    Univ British Columbia, Quesnel River Res Ctr, POB 28, Likely, BC, Canada|Univ No British Columbia, 3333 Univ Way, Prince George, BC V2L 5P2, Canada;

    Univ British Columbia, Quesnel River Res Ctr, POB 28, Likely, BC, Canada|Univ No British Columbia, 3333 Univ Way, Prince George, BC V2L 5P2, Canada;

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