• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Water Resources Journal >Challenging the standard dike freeboard: Methods to quantify statistical uncertainties in river flood protection
【24h】

Challenging the standard dike freeboard: Methods to quantify statistical uncertainties in river flood protection

机译：挑战标准堤防干舷：量化河道防洪统计不确定性的方法

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

In most developed and developing nations, a freeboard is being applied to flood defense structures as a margin of uncertainty in the estimated flood stage. In some jurisdictions, practice is shifting towards the use of confidence intervals based on the fitted flood probability distribution, albeit often relying on only one statistical distribution and on only annual maximum flows. In this paper, we argue that, independent of geotechnical, geomorphological or hydrological uncertainties pertaining to the estimation of flood stage, the application of standard freeboards ignores stochastic uncertainty, the inclusion of which would provide a more scientifically defensible measure for allowable freeboard. The river stage estimate is subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including but not limited to model and parameter uncertainty. Consequently, freeboards should be determined via a frequency analysis that explicitly takes into consideration, as well as minimizes, the uncertainty of the estimate due to known factors. Confidence intervals are a common way to represent uncertainty of a statistical estimate such as for the river stage. The choice of the confidence level will be critical, and in many cases will be associated with significant cost implications for the construction or upgrade of flood defense structures. Quantitative flood risk assessments, which are emerging as a standard in developed nations, are well suited to address this issue by allowing loss and mitigation cost comparisons for different flood scenarios. Our paper provides guidance for confidence interval calculations of river stage using an extension of the classical peaks-over-threshold method for daily river levels.
机译：在大多数发达国家和发展中国家，在估计的洪水阶段，由于存在一定的不确定性，因此对防洪结构采用了干舷措施。在某些辖区，尽管通常仅依靠一种统计分布和仅依靠每年的最大流量，但实践正在转向基于拟合洪水概率分布的置信区间。在本文中，我们认为，独立于与洪水阶段估算有关的岩土，地貌或水文不确定性，标准干舷的应用忽略了随机不确定性，将其纳入将为允许干舷提供更科学的辩护措施。河段估算受多种不确定性因素的影响，包括但不限于模型和参数不确定性。因此，应通过频率分析来确定干舷，该频率分析应明确考虑并尽量减少由于已知因素引起的估计不确定性。置信区间是表示诸如河段之类的统计估计的不确定性的常用方法。置信水平的选择至关重要，并且在许多情况下将对防洪结构的建设或升级产生重大的成本影响。量化洪水风险评估在发达国家已成为一种标准，它可以通过比较不同洪水情景下的损失和减灾成本来很好地解决这一问题。本文为传统河段日均水位的经典峰值法的计算方法的扩展，为河段的置信区间计算提供了指导。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号