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Modelling climate change impacts on the hydrology of an agricultural watershed in southern Quebec

机译：模拟气候变化对魁北克南部农业流域水文学的影响

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Spring flooding and water availability during the summer are two major concerns in southern Quebec. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate shortages of fresh water resources in Quebec. Therefore, the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Pike River watershed were projected for the 2041-2070 time horizon using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWATqc) adapted to Quebec's agroclimatic conditions. SWATqc was driven by inputs from four climate projections created with the fourth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4) and the Arpege regional climate model. CRCM4 was driven at the border of its domain by three members of the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3). The Arpege model, which has a variable grid, is not driven by another model. The gas emissions scenario used to drive climate models was scenario A2. Regional climate data sets were bias-corrected with the delta method prior to being used to drive SWATqc. Projected changes in precipitation and temperatures were analysed for their effects on evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, and streamflow. Mean annual streamflow was projected to increase between 9 and 19%. All future simulations projected significant increases or decreases in evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, and streamflow at the monthly time scale. Winter streamflow, for example, increased by 2- to 3-fold compared with the historical values. In addition, future spring floods started earlier and peaked in March instead of April. The four simulations were named ADC, ACU, AFA/AFD, and ARP. All but the ACU simulation projected a decrease in peak flow, while the ADC, AFD and ARP simulations suggested an increase. Although the majority of the simulations pointed to decreases in summer streamflows, the changes were not all significantly different from historical values. Results from this study not only show that climate change has a strong potential to exacerbate seasonal water availability and flooding issues in the watershed, but also provide conservative numbers that could be used in developing improved watershed management plans adapted to future climate change impacts.
机译：春季洪水和夏季的水供应是魁北克南部的两个主要问题。预计气候变化将进一步加剧魁北克的淡水资源短缺。因此，使用适合魁北克省农业气候条件的土壤和水评估工具（SWATqc）版本，在2041-2070年的时间范围内预测了气候变化对派克河流域水文学的影响。 SWATqc受到第四代加拿大区域气候模型（CRCM4）和Arpege区域气候模型创建的四个气候预测的投入的推动。 CRCM4是由加拿大耦合全球气候模式（CGCM3）的三名成员在其领域边界驱动的。具有可变网格的Arpege模型不受其他模型驱动。用于驱动气候模型的气体排放情景是情景A2。在用于驱动SWATqc之前，已使用delta方法对区域气候数据集进行了偏差校正。分析了预计的降水和温度变化对蒸散量，地表和地下径流以及水流的影响。预计年均流量将增加9％至19％。所有未来的模拟都预测在每月的时间尺度上蒸散量，地表和地下径流以及水流将显着增加或减少。例如，冬季流量比历史值增加了2到3倍。此外，未来的春季洪水更早开始，并在3月而不是4月达到顶峰。这四个模拟分别命名为ADC，ACU，AFA / AFD和ARP。除ACU模拟外，其他所有项目均预计峰值流量将减少，而ADC，AFD和ARP模拟则表明峰值流量有所增加。尽管大多数模拟都表明夏季流量减少，但这些变化与历史值并没有很大的不同。这项研究的结果不仅表明气候变化具有加剧流域季节性水供应和洪水问题的强大潜力，而且还提供了可用于制定适应未来气候变化影响的改进流域管理计划的保守数字。

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