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Assessment of a multimodel ensemble against an operational hydrological forecasting system

机译：针对运行中的水文预报系统评估多模式集合

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Ensemble forecasts present an alternative to traditional deterministic forecasts by providing information about the likelihood of various outcomes. An ensemble can be constructed wherever errors are likely to occur within a hydrometeorological forecasting chain. This study compares the hydrological performance of a multimodel ensemble against deterministic forecasts issued by an operational forecasting system, in terms of accuracy and reliability. This comparison is carried out on 38 catchments in the province of Quebec for more than 2 years of 6-day-ahead forecasts. The multimodel ensemble is comprised of 20 lumped conceptual models pooled together, while the reference forecast originates from an operational semi-distributed model. The results show that probabilistic forecast outperforms its deterministic counterpart and the deterministic operational forecast system, thanks to the role that each member plays inside the multimodel ensemble. This analysis demonstrates that the multimodel ensemble is potentially an operational tool, even though the specific setup for this study still suffers from underdispersion and needs to take into account additional sources of uncertainty to reach an optimal framework.
机译：集合预测通过提供有关各种结果可能性的信息，提供了传统确定性预测的替代方法。只要在水文气象预报链中可能发生错误的地方，都可以构建一个整体。这项研究在准确性和可靠性方面，将多模型集合的水文性能与运营预测系统发布的确定性预测进行了比较。这项比较是在魁北克省的38个集水区进行的，超过2年的提前6天预报。多模型集合由20个集总在一起的概念模型组成，而参考预测则来自可操作的半分布式模型。结果表明，由于每个成员在多模型集合中所扮演的角色，概率预测的性能优于其确定性对应方法和确定性操作预测系统。该分析表明，尽管本研究的特定设置仍然存在分散不足的问题，并且需要考虑其他不确定性因素才能获得最佳框架，但多模型集合可能是一种操作工具。

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    《Canadian Water Resources Journal》 |2015年第3期|272-284|共13页
  • 作者

    Thiboult A.; Anctil F.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Laval, Dept Civil & Water Engn, Chaire Rech EDS Pevis & Act Hydrol, Quebec City, PQ G1K 7P4, Canada.;

    Univ Laval, Dept Civil & Water Engn, Chaire Rech EDS Pevis & Act Hydrol, Quebec City, PQ G1K 7P4, Canada.;

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