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首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Water Resources Journal >The Vulnerability of Lower Englishman River to Modelled Climate Change
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The Vulnerability of Lower Englishman River to Modelled Climate Change

机译：下英格兰人河对气候变化模拟的脆弱性

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It is generally accepted in scientific circles that the earth's atmosphere is warming, and that this warming trend is projected to increase as a result of atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling, by the end of this century. Such warming will affect regional precipitation patterns and thus river hydrology. This study focuses on the effects of modelled regional climate change on the frequency and magnitude of flooding along the floodplain of the Englishman River on the east coast of central Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Using the results of a regional climate model (Reynolds, 2002), we found that there will be changes to the flood regime of the river. Peak annual flows may be 8% larger by 2020, 14% larger by 2050 and 17% larger by 2080. This means that an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flows is likely in the future. For example by 2020, the 15―year flood is expected to have a slightly greater magnitude than the current 20―year flood, and by 2080, the 10―year flood is expected have the same magnitude as the current 20―year flood. The changes in flood magnitudes will have significant impacts on people living on the floodplain. Large areas of the floodplain are currently occupied by houses, and much of the remaining area is zoned for further subdivisions. The current bankfull flood is predicted to increase, and for this to occur there will be a change in the morphology of the channel.
机译：科学界普遍认为地球的大气层正在变暖，并且由于到本世纪末大气中二氧化碳增加一倍，这种变暖趋势预计会增加。这种变暖将影响区域降水模式，进而影响河流水文学。这项研究的重点是模拟的区域气候变化对不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华岛中部东海岸英吉曼河洪泛区洪水泛滥的频率和强度的影响。使用区域气候模型的结果（Reynolds，2002），我们发现河流的洪水状况将发生变化。到2020年，年流量峰值将增加8％，到2050年将增加14％，到2080年将增加17％。这意味着将来流量的频率和数量可能会增加。例如，到2020年，预计15年洪水的强度将比当前20年洪水的强度稍大，而到2080年，预计10年洪水的强度将与当前20年洪水的强度相同。洪水幅度的变化将对生活在洪泛区的人们产生重大影响。目前，泛滥平原的大片区域被房屋占据，剩余的大部分区域被划为可进一步细分的区域。预计当前的河岸洪水将增加，为此，河道形态将发生变化。

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