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首页> 外文期刊>Chelonian conservation and biology >Identifying Climate Refugia: A Framework to Inform Conservation Strategies for Agassiz's Desert Tortoise in a Warmer Future
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Identifying Climate Refugia: A Framework to Inform Conservation Strategies for Agassiz's Desert Tortoise in a Warmer Future

机译：确定气候避难所：温暖未来中阿加西兹沙漠乌龟养护策略的框架

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摘要

Agassiz's desert tortoise, Gopherus agassizii, faces threats from climate change. With limited mobility to move long distances to more-suitable habitat as climate change advances, whether protecting tortoises in situ or translocating them out of harm's way, a critical conservation task is identifying refugia, lands that will remain suitable under the current climate and the projected, end of the 21st Century warming and drying. While researchers have modeled tortoise habitat suitability, they have done so at coarse scales and did not identify climate refugia that may become apparent only with a fine-scale approach. It is at that scale that managers can implement measures that will foster habitat protection for tortoises throughout their current range. In this case study, we employed fine-scale habitat suitability modeling to identify current habitat and climate refugia within and surrounding the Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center (MCAGCC) at Twentynine Palms, California. We modeled nearly 284,000 ha of currently suitable tortoise habitat within an 858,800-ha study area. Projected maximum end-of-the-century summer temperatures could reduce the area of tortoise habitat 55% to 127,650 ha; however, almost 115,800 ha would overlap current tortoise habitat and would serve as climate refugia. Applied elsewhere, where tortoise protection must be balanced with other land uses, this approach could increase the efficacy of conservation for this threatened species. Nevertheless, until validated with field studies, habitat suitability models represent hypotheses as to current and future distributions of appropriate tortoise habitat. These hypotheses should foster additional research identifying whether tortoise densities and demographic structure are more secure and whether tortoises can adapt to shifting climates more effectively within than outside modeled refugia.
机译：阿加西（Agassiz）的沙漠乌龟Gopherus agassizii面临着气候变化的威胁。随着气候变化的进展，移动性有限，无法长距离移动到更适合的栖息地，无论是就地保护乌龟还是将其转移到不受危害的位置，一项关键的保护任务是确定避难所，在当前气候和计划下仍将适合的土地，21世纪末变暖和干燥。尽管研究人员已经对乌龟栖息地的适应性进行了建模，但他们只是在粗略的范围内进行了建模，并未发现只有采用精细的方法才能发现的气候避难所。正是在这样的规模下，管理人员可以采取措施，在其当前范围内促进对乌龟的栖息地保护。在本案例研究中，我们采用了精细的栖息地适应性模型，以识别位于加利福尼亚州二十九棕榈村的海军陆战队空中地面作战中心（MCAGCC）内部及其周围的当前栖息地和气候避难所。我们在一个858,800公顷的研究区域内对近284,000公顷当前合适的乌龟栖息地进行了建模。预计本世纪末的夏季最高温度可能会使乌龟栖息地的面积减少55％，至127,650公顷；然而，将近115,800公顷土地将与目前的乌龟栖息地重叠，并成为气候避难所。在必须保护乌龟与其他土地使用相平衡的其他地方应用这种方法，可以提高对该濒危物种的保护效力。然而，在经过实地研究验证之前，栖息地适应性模型代表了有关适当的乌龟栖息地当前和未来分布的假设。这些假说应促进更多的研究，从而确定陆龟密度和人口结构是否更安全，以及陆龟是否比外界模拟避难所能更有效地适应气候变化。

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