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首页> 外文期刊>Chemosphere >Lifetime PCB 153 bioaccumulation and pharmacokinetics in pilot whales: Bayesian population PBPK modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations
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Lifetime PCB 153 bioaccumulation and pharmacokinetics in pilot whales: Bayesian population PBPK modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations

机译:终生鲸鱼中终生PCB 153的生物累积和药代动力学:贝叶斯族PBPK建模和马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛模拟

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摘要

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for wild animal populations such as marine mammals typically have a high degree of model uncertainty and variability due to the scarcity of information and the embryonic nature of this field. Parameters values used in marine mammals models are usually taken from other mammalian species (e.g. rats or mice) and might not be entirely suitable to properly explain the kinetics of pollutants in marine mammals. Therefore, several parameters for a PBPK model for the bioaccumulation and pharmacokinetics of PCB 153 in long-finned pilot whales were estimated in the present study using the Bayesian approach executed with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. This method uses 'prior' information of the parameters, either from the literature or from previous model runs. The advantage is that this method uses such 'prior' parameters to calculate probability distributions to determine 'posterior' values that best explain the field observations. Those field observations or datasets were PCB 153 concentrations in blubber of long-finned pilot whales from Sandy Cape and Stanley, Tasmania, Australia. The model predictions showed an overall decrease in PCB 153 levels in blubber over the lifetime of the pilot whales. All parameters from the Sandy Cape model were updated using the Stanley dataset, except for the concentration of PCB 153 in the milk. The model presented here is a promising and preliminary start to PBPK modeling in long-finned pilot whales that would provide a basis for non-invasive studies in these protected marine mammals.
机译:由于缺乏信息和该领域的胚胎性质,针对野生动物种群(例如海洋哺乳动物)的基于生理学的药代动力学(PBPK)模型通常具有高度的模型不确定性和可变性。海洋哺乳动物模型中使用的参数值通常取自其他哺乳动物物种(例如大鼠或小鼠),可能并不完全适合于正确解释海洋哺乳动物中污染物的动力学。因此,在本研究中,使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)模拟执行的贝叶斯方法,估计了用于长鳍鲸鱼中PCB 153的生物累积和药代动力学的PBPK模型的几个参数。此方法使用来自文献或先前模型运行的参数“先前”信息。优点是该方法使用此类“先验”参数来计算概率分布,以确定最能解释现场观测结果的“后验”值。这些现场观察或数据集是来自澳大利亚塔斯马尼亚州桑迪岬和斯坦利的长鳍fin鲸的脂中PCB 153的浓度。模型预测表明,在领航鲸的整个生命周期中,润滑脂中PCB 153含量总体下降。除牛奶中PCB 153的浓度外,使用Stanley数据集更新了Sandy Cape模型中的所有参数。此处介绍的模型是长鳍鲸鱼PBPK建模的有希望的初步开始,这将为这些受保护的海洋哺乳动物的无创研究提供基础。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Chemosphere》 |2014年第1期|91-96|共6页
  • 作者单位

    Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, Building U, 5th Floor, 2020 Antwerp, Belgium,Toxicological Centre, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium;

    Office of Environment & Heritage, NSW, PO Box 29, Lidcombe, NSW, Australia;

    Quantitative and Computational Toxicology Group, Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA;

    Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Ontario Institute of Technology, Oshawa, Canada;

    Quantitative and Computational Toxicology Group, Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA,Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA;

    Aegis Technologies Group, Orlando, FL, USA;

    Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp, Belgium,Toxicological Centre, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium;

    Office of Environment & Heritage, NSW, PO Box 29, Lidcombe, NSW, Australia;

    Office of Environment & Heritage, NSW, PO Box 29, Lidcombe, NSW, Australia;

    Office of Environment & Heritage, NSW, PO Box 29, Lidcombe, NSW, Australia;

    Toxicological Centre, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium;

    Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp, Belgium;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    PBPK; Bioaccumulation; MCMC; Bayesian; Pilot whale;

    机译:PBPK;生物蓄积;MCMC;贝叶斯领航鲸;

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