BMI View: China's security environment is threatened by potential flashpoints that appear to be on the brink of armed conflict. Although domestic threats from the pro-independence movements and separatist activity of the Xinjiang and Tibet autonomous regions exist, these security issues pale in comparison to the ongoing challenges in the South and East China seas. These maritime disputes have been ongoing for centuries but tensions have steadily increased in recent years, even spreading to Singapore and Indonesia. The South China Sea dispute concerns territory and sovereignty over maritime zones as well as island chains and reefs, namely the Paracels, the Spratlys and the Scarborough Shoal, claimed in whole or in part by several ASEAN states as well as China. With the People's Republic of China (PRC) claiming sovereignty over most of the South China Sea and actively asserting its claim - most recently by building air and naval facilities on reclaimed land (since 2014) - many of the smaller Asian countries have turned to the US for security. The US has, in turn, stepped up its 'Freedom Of Navigation Operations' in the region, creating more tensions with China as Washington looks to keep the regional power balance tilted in its own favour. Similarly, in the East China Sea, ongoing disputes between Japan and China concerning territorial claims to the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands continue to hinder Tokyo-Beijing relations and remain a source of potential skirmishes going forward.
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