BMI View: Although geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict are subsiding, the conflict between the US-led coalition and the Islamic State militant group will escalate. Meanwhile, significant geopolitical risks remain in East Asia. As we enter the final quarter of 2014 the world is attempting to recover from a period of heightened geopolitical risk that has shaken the foundations of the established order. The Russia-Ukraine conflict showed that unilateral changes in European borders by military force are still possible, and that 'great powers' are willing to endure economic pain to preserve their geopolitical interests. Meanwhile, the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (IS, ISIS or ISIL) showed that Middle Eastern borders established almost a century ago are being tested like never before, and that the global Islamist terror threat is very much alive, despite multiple setbacks for Jihadist groups in the last few years.
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