Macroeconomic Forecasts

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Macroeconomic Forecasts

机译：宏观经济预测

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BMI View: We continue to believe that the hangover effects of China's economic stimulus are yet to be felt, and cooling credit growth is likely to reveal these effects over the coming quarters. Newfound reform momentum has the potential to help the economy grow out from under its credit excesses, however, several obstacles stand in the way of this, including the likelihood that reform efforts could exacerbate any economic downturn. We are forecasting real GDP growth to come in at 7.1% in 2014, before slowing further to average 6.1% growth over the next five years.

机译：BMI观点：我们仍然认为，中国经济刺激措施的宿醉效应尚未显现，信贷增速放缓很可能在未来几个季度揭示这些影响。新近发现的改革势头有可能帮助经济从信贷过剩的状况中发展出来，但是，这样做有很多障碍，包括改革努力可能加剧任何经济下滑的可能性。我们预计2014年实际GDP增长率为7.1％，然后在未来五年内进一步放缓至平均6.1％的增长率。

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《China defence & security report》 |2014年第q2期|24-28|共5页
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Macroeconomic Forecasts

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