BMI View: As we enter the second half of 2014, the world is seeing a notable increase in geopolitical risk in several quarters. The rapid military gains by the Syria- and Iraq-based Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS, subsequently renamed the Islamic State) in northern Iraq has brought the country to the brink of civil war. Ukraine continues to experience a Russian-backed insurgency in the east of the country, despite efforts by the major powers and the new Ukrainian government to end the rebellion. Elsewhere, tensions remain high between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea. None of the underlying grievances in these crises will disappear anytime soon. As such, all three regions will merit attention for the foreseeable future.
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