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首页> 外文期刊>Chinese Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics >Multi-parameters uncertainty analysis of logistic support process based on GERT
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Multi-parameters uncertainty analysis of logistic support process based on GERT

机译：基于GERT的后勤保障过程多参数不确定性分析

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摘要

The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However, the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique (MTP-GERT) is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.
机译：不确定性分析是用于系统模型分析和优化的有效灵敏度分析方法。但是，现有的单因素不确定性分析方法不能在具有多个决策因素的后勤支持系统中很好地使用。考虑到两个重要因素，即支持活动时间和支持活动资源，这是造成物流支持流程不确定性的两个主要原因，因此，使用多个转移参数图形评估和审查技术（MTP-GERT）对物流支持流程进行建模。在此基础上，设计了一种基于协方差的全局敏感性分析方法来分析后勤保障过程的不确定性。以飞机支持过程为例，说明了所提方法分析支持过程不确定性的有效性，并提出了一些可行的建议，对航母进行飞机支持决策。

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