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Decadal co-variability of the summer surface air temperature and soil moisture in China under global warming

机译:全球变暖下中国夏季地表气温与土壤水分的年代际协变

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The self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is calculated using newly updated ground observations of monthly surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation in China. The co-variabilities of PDSI and SAT are examined for summer for the period 1961—2004. The results show that there exist decadal climate co-variabilities and strong nonlinear interactions between SAT and soil moisture in many regions of China. Some of the co-variabilities can be linked to global warming. In summer, significant decadal co-variabilities from cool-wet to warm-dry conditions are found in the east region of Northwest China, North China, and Northeast China. An important finding is that in the west region of Northwest China and Southeast China, pronounced decadal co-variabilities take place from warm-dry to cool-wet conditions. Because significant warming was observed over most areas of the global land surface during the past 20—30 years, the shift to cool-wet conditions is a unique phenomenon which may deserve much scientific attention. The nonlinear interactions between SAT and soil moisture may partly account for the observed decadal co-variabilities. It is shown that anomalies of SAT will greatly affect the climatic co-variabilities, and changes of SAT may bring notable influence on the PDSI in China. These results provide observational evidence for increasing risks of decadal drought and wetness as anthropogenic global warming progresses.
机译:自校准的帕尔默干旱严重性指数(PDSI)是使用最新更新的地面月地面气温(SAT)和中国降水的地面观测值计算得出的。在1961-2004年夏季检查了PDSI和SAT的协方差。结果表明,中国许多地区存在年代际气候协变和SAT与土壤水分之间强烈的非线性相互作用。一些协变量可能与全球变暖有关。夏季,在中国西北,华北和东北的东部地区,从冷湿到暖干条件都有明显的年代际协变。一个重要发现是,在西北地区和东南地区的西部地区,从暖干到冷湿条件都存在明显的年代际协变。由于在过去20到30年间,在全球陆地表面的大多数区域都观测到了明显的变暖现象,因此转向冷湿条件是一种独特的现象,值得科学界的关注。 SAT和土壤水分之间的非线性相互作用可能部分解释了观测到的年代际协方差。结果表明,SAT异常将极大地影响气候的协变,而SAT的变化可能会对中国的PDSI产生显着影响。这些结果提供了观测证据,表明随着人为全球变暖的进行,年代际干旱和潮湿的风险增加。

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