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SARS epidemical forecast research in mathematical model

机译：数学模型中的SARS流行病预测研究

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摘要

The SIJR model, simplified from the SEIJR model, is adopted to analyze the important parameters of the model of SARS epidemic such as the transmission rate, basic reproductive number. And some important parameters are obtained such as the transmission rate by applying this model to analyzing the situation in Hong Kong, Singapore and Canada at the outbreak of SARS. Then forecast of the transmission of SARS is drawn out here by the adjustment of parameters (such as quarantined rate) in the model. It is obvious that inflexion lies on the crunode of the graph, which indicates the big difference in transmission characteristics between the epidemic under control and not under control. This model can also be used in the comparison of the control effectiveness among different regions. The results from this model match well with the actual data in Hong Kong, Singapore and Canada and as a by-product, the index of the effectiveness of control in the later period can be acquired. It offers some quantitative indexes, which may help the further research in epidemic diseases.
机译：采用SIJR模型（从SEIJR模型简化而来）分析SARS流行病模型的重要参数，如传播率，基本生殖数。利用该模型对SARS爆发时香港，新加坡和加拿大的情况进行了分析，得出了一些重要的参数，如传播速率。然后，通过调整模型中的参数（如隔离率），得出SARS传播的预测。显然，拐点处在图表的结节上，这表明在控制之下和未控制之下的流行之间的传播特性差异很大。该模型还可用于比较不同区域之间的控制有效性。该模型的结果与香港，新加坡和加拿大的实际数据非常吻合，作为副产品，可以获取后期控制有效性的指标。它提供了一些定量指标，可能有助于进一步研究流行病。

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